Shock Transmission and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: An Empirical Analysis with the New Global Input-Output Table

• Project/Area Number: 24330101
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Public finance/Monetary economics
• Research Institution: Yokohama National University
• Principal Investigator: SATO Kiyotaka 横浜国立大学, 国際社会科学研究院, 教授 (30311319)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): SHIMIZU Junko 学習院大学, 経済学部, 教授 (70377068) ; KUMAKURA Masanaga 駒澤大学, 経営学部, 教授 (20347503)
• Project Period (FY): 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
• Budget Amount: ¥15,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,570,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000); Fiscal Year 2013: ¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000); Fiscal Year 2012: ¥5,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,260,000)
• Keywords: 国際産業連関表 / 均衡為替レート / アジア / 通貨統合 / 最適通貨圏 / 景気循環 / 生産ネットワーク / 経済政策 / 経済事情 / 国際金融 / 為替レート / 経済ショックの波及 / 産業別実質実効為替レート / 東アジア

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research project constructed a new Global Input-Output Table focusing on Asia. Utilizing the Global Input-Output Table, we empirically analyzed how and to what extent an economic shock is transmitted globally and regionally. In collaboration with the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), we constructed the new database of industry-specific real effective exchange rates, and empirically investigated what the optimal exchange rate policy is for Asian economies.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] New Industry-Level Analysis on Value Chains and Competitiveness in Asia and Europe: Introduction (2015)
  • Author(s): Kiyotaka Sato and Robert Stehrer
  • Journal Title: Asian Economic Journal Volume: Vol.29, No.2
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Industry-Level Competitiveness, Productivity, and Effective Exchange Rates in East Asia (2015)
  • Author(s): Keiko Ito and Junko Shimizu
  • Journal Title: Asian Economic Journal Volume: Vol.29, No.2
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Deflation? What deflation? Statistical origins of Japan's declining price levels (2015)
  • Author(s): Masanaga Kumakura
  • Journal Title: World Economics Volume: Vol.16, No.2
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] 物価指数の特性と日本の交易条件 (2015)
  • Author(s): 熊倉正修
  • Journal Title: 経済統計研究 Volume: 第43巻第Ⅱ号
  • NAID: 40020608238
• [Journal Article] デフレと消費者物価指数の品質調整 (2015)
  • Author(s): 熊倉正修
  • Journal Title: 経済統計研究 Volume: 第43巻第Ⅰ号
  • NAID: 40020529381
• [Journal Article] 我が国の通貨政策と外国資金特別会計 (2015)
  • Author(s): 熊倉正修
  • Journal Title: 国際金融 Volume: 第1271号 Pages: 82-88
• [Journal Article] 為替レートの関する世論は変わるか (2015)
  • Author(s): 熊倉正修
  • Journal Title: 駒大経営研究 Volume: 第46巻第3・4号 Pages: 1-14
• [Journal Article] “Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates and Export Price Competitiveness: The Cases of Japan, China and Korea,” (2013)
  • Author(s): Sato, Kiyotaka, Junko Shimizu, Nagendra Shrestha and Shajuan Zhang
  • Journal Title: Asian Economic Policy Review Volume: 8(2) Issue: 2 Pages: 298-321
  • DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12032
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 産業別の実効為替レートで見る世界史上での真の価格競争力 (2013)
  • Author(s): 佐藤清隆
  • Journal Title: 『週刊エコノミスト』 Volume: 2013年4月23日号 Pages: 76-79
• [Journal Article] ユーロ圏危機がアジアのリアルセクターに及ぼす影響 (2013)
  • Author(s): 佐藤清隆
  • Journal Title: 『日経研月報』 Volume: Vol.425 Pages: 14-23
• [Journal Article] アベノミクスと脱工業化の政治経済学 (2013)
  • Author(s): 熊倉正修
  • Journal Title: 『世界経済評論』 Volume: 第57巻3号 Pages: 30-34
• [Journal Article] 円安待望論の政治経済学 (2013)
  • Author(s): 熊倉正修
  • Journal Title: 『国際金融』 Volume: 第1248号 Pages: 22-29
  • NAID: 40019687410
• [Journal Article] 分行業実際有効〓率-中国与日本的比較研究(Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rate: A Comparison between China and Japan) (2013)
  • Author(s): 佐藤清隆・清水順子・シュレスタ・ナゲンドラ・章沙娟
  • Journal Title: 中国社会科学院世界経済与政治研究所『世界経済』 Volume: 第417期 Pages: 2-19
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] New Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate : The Case for the Chinese Renminbi (2012)
  • Author(s): Sato, Kiyotaka, Junko Shimizu, Nagendra Shrestha, Zhaoyong Zhang
  • Journal Title: The World Economy Volume: Vol.35 Issue 4 Issue: 4 Pages: 419-443
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2012.01444.x
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Should Chinese Renminbi Be Cursed for Its Trade Surplus? A Structural VAR Approach (2012)
  • Author(s): Zhaoyong Zhang, Kiyotaka Sato
  • Journal Title: The World Economy Volume: (印刷中) Issue: 5 Pages: 632-650
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2012.01438.x
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Industry-specific Exchange Rate Volatility and Intermediate Goods Trade in Asia (2014)
  • Author(s): Kiyotaka Sato, Junko Shimizu, Nagendra Shrestha and Shajuan Zhang
  • Organizer: 2014 Asia Pacific Business Conference on Free Trade Agreements and Regional Integration in East Asia: Prospects, Challenges and Implications
  • Place of Presentation: Perth, Australia
  • Year and Date: 2014-11-27 – 2014-11-29
• [Presentation] Abenomics, Yen Depreciation, Trade Deficit and Export Competitiveness (2014)
  • Author(s): Junko Shimizu and Kiyotaka Sato
  • Organizer: 2014 Asia Pacific Business Conference on Free Trade Agreements and Regional Integration in East Asia: Prospects, Challenges and Implications
  • Place of Presentation: Perth, Australia
  • Year and Date: 2014-11-27 – 2014-11-29
• [Presentation] Regional Shock or Global Shock? A Global VAR Analysis on the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Asia (2014)
  • Author(s): Sheue Li Ong and Kiyotaka Sato
  • Organizer: 2014 Asia Pacific Business Conference on Free Trade Agreements and Regional Integration in East Asia: Prospects, Challenges and Implications
  • Place of Presentation: Perth, Australia
  • Year and Date: 2014-11-27 – 2014-11-29
• [Presentation] Abenomics, Yen Depreciation, Trade Deficit and Export Competitiveness (2014)
  • Author(s): Junko Shimizu and Kiyotaka Sato
  • Organizer: EAEA14 (14th International Convention of East Asian Economic Association)
  • Place of Presentation: Bangkok, Thailand
  • Year and Date: 2014-11-01 – 2014-11-02
• [Presentation] Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japanese Exports: Application of the Threshold Vector Autoregressive Model (2014)
  • Author(s): Thi-Ngoc Anh Nguyen and Kiyotaka Sato
  • Organizer: EAEA14 (14th International Convention of East Asian Economic Association)
  • Place of Presentation: Bangkok, Thailand
  • Year and Date: 2014-11-01 – 2014-11-02
• [Presentation] Regional Shock or Global Shock? A Global VAR Analysis on the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Asia (2014)
  • Author(s): Sheue Li Ong and Kiyotaka Sato
  • Organizer: EAEA14 (14th International Convention of East Asian Economic Association)
  • Place of Presentation: Bangkok, Thailand
  • Year and Date: 2014-11-01 – 2014-11-02
• [Presentation] Transmission of Exchange Rate Changes to Japanese Domestic Prices: New Input-Output Analysis on Exchange Rate Pass-Through (2014)
  • Author(s): Le Thu Huong Hoang and Kiyotaka Sato
  • Organizer: EAEA14 (14th International Convention of East Asian Economic Association)
  • Place of Presentation: Bangkok, Thailand
  • Year and Date: 2014-11-01 – 2014-11-02
• [Presentation] Exchange Rate Exposure and Exchange Rate Risk Management: The Case of Japanese Exporting Firms (2014)
  • Author(s): Takatoshi Ito, Satoshi Koibuchi, Kiyotaka Sato and Junko Shimizu
  • Organizer: EEA2014 (European Economic Association and Econometric Society)
  • Place of Presentation: Toulouse, France
  • Year and Date: 2014-08-25
• [Presentation] Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates in Asia (2014)
  • Author(s): Kiyotaka Sato, Junko Shimizu, Nagendra Shrestha and Shajuan Zhang
  • Organizer: 日本金融学会2014年春季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 慶応義塾大学
  • Year and Date: 2014-05-24
• [Presentation] Global and Regional Shock Transmission: New Evidence from Globally Integrated Input-Output Table (2013)
  • Author(s): Sato, Kiyotaka and Nagendra Shrestha
  • Organizer: 10th Biennial Pacific Rim Conference of Western Economic Association International
  • Place of Presentation: Tokyo
• [Presentation] Industry-specific Exchange Rate Volatility and Intermediate Goods Trade in Asia (2013)
  • Author(s): Sato, Kiyotaka, Junko Shimizu, Nagendra Shrestha, Shajuan Zhang
  • Organizer: 10th Biennial Pacific Rim Conference of Western Economic Association International
  • Place of Presentation: Tokyo
• [Presentation] Global and Regional Shock Transmission : New Evidence from Globally Integrated Input-Output Table (2012)
  • Author(s): Sato, Kiyotaka and Nagendra Shrestha
  • Organizer: International Conference of the Association of Korean Economics Studies on Korea and the World Economy, XI
  • Place of Presentation: Seoul Woman's University, Seoul, Korea
• [Presentation] Global and Regional Shock Transmission: New Evidence from Globally Integrated Input-Output Table (2012)
  • Author(s): Sato, Kiyotaka and Nagendra Shrestha
  • Organizer: 13th International Convention on East Asian Economic Association
  • Place of Presentation: Singapore
• [Presentation] Industry-specific Exchange Rate Volatility and Intermediate Goods Trade in Asia (2012)
  • Author(s): Sato, Kiyotaka, Junko Shimizu, Nagendra Shrestha, Shajuan Zhang
  • Organizer: 13th International Convention on East Asian Economic Association
  • Place of Presentation: Singapore
• [Presentation] Exchange Rate Appreciation and Export Price Competitiveness: Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates of Japan, Korea and China
  • Author(s): Sato, Kiyotaka, Junko Shimizu, Nagendra Shrestha and Shajuan Zhang
  • Organizer: Asian Economic Policy Review Conference: Japan at the Crossroads
  • Place of Presentation: Tokyo, Japan
• [Presentation] Exchange Rate Appreciation and Export Price Competitiveness: Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates of Japan, Korea and China
  • Author(s): Sato, Kiyotaka, Junko Shimizu, Nagendra Shrestha and Shajuan Zhang
  • Organizer: 日本金融学会2013年度春季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 一橋大学
• [Presentation] Shock Transmission, Production Fragmentation and Business Cycle Synchronization: New Evidence from Globally Integrated Input-Output Table
  • Author(s): Sato, Kiyotaka and Nagendra Shrestha
  • Organizer: 21st International Input-Output Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Kitakyushu, Fukuoka, Japan
• [Presentation] Shock Transmission, Production Fragmentation and Business Cycle Synchronization: New Evidence from Globally Integrated Input-Output Table
  • Author(s): Sato, Kiyotaka and Nagendra Shrestha
  • Organizer: Singapore Economic Review Conference 2013
  • Place of Presentation: Singapore
• [Presentation] 産業別実質実効為替レートと日本の輸出競争力
  • Author(s): 佐藤清隆
  • Organizer: 国際経済学会関東部会新春特別シンポジウム：2014年世界経済の重要な論点
  • Place of Presentation: 東洋大学白山キャンパス
  • Invited
• [Book] 小川英治編著『ユーロ圏危機と世界経済』第6章「ユーロ圏危機がアジアのリアルセクターに及ぼす影響」 (2015)
  • Author(s): 佐藤清隆
  • Publisher: 東京大学出版会
• [Book] 小川英治編著『ユーロ圏危機と世界経済』第7章「ユーロ圏危機がアジアの通貨に及ぼす影響」 (2015)
  • Author(s): 清水順子
  • Publisher: 東京大学出版会
• [Book] 国際日本経済論：グローバル化と日本の針路 (2015)
  • Author(s): 熊倉正修
  • Publisher: 昭和堂
• [Remarks] アジア国際産業連関データベース（YNU-GIO Table）
  • URL: http://www.recessa.ynu.ac.jp/modules/ynugio/index.php?content_id=1
• [Remarks] 産業別実質実効為替レートのデータ公開
  • URL: http://www.rieti.go.jp/users/eeri/index.html
• [Remarks] 新しい国際産業連関表のデータ公開
  • URL: http://www.recessa.ynu.ac.jp/modules/ynugio/index.php?content_id