Risk Score for the Incident Atrial Fibrillation in the Urban Japanese Population

• Project/Area Number: 25293147
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Epidemiology and preventive medicine
• Research Institution: National Cardiovascular Center Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: Kokubo Yoshihiro 国立研究開発法人国立循環器病研究センター, 病院, 医長 (20393217)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
• Budget Amount: ¥17,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,140,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000); Fiscal Year 2013: ¥11,180,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,580,000)
• Keywords: 心房細動 / リスクスコア－ / 疫学 / 危険因子 / リスクスコアー / 追跡研究 / 収縮期血圧 / body mass index / 過剰飲酒 / 喫煙 / 生活習慣 / リスクスコア―

Outline of Final Research Achievements

A total of 6,906 participants (30-84 years old) initially free of AF were prospectively followed up for incident AF in the Suita Study. Standard 12-lead ECGs were obtained from all subjects in the supine position. Participants were diagnosed with AF if AF or atrial flutter was present on ECGs obtained during a biannual routine health examination or if AF was indicated as a present illness by either annual questionnaires responses or participants' medical records during follow-up. Cox proportional hazard ratios were analyzed.
In 88,663 person-years of follow-up, 253 incident AF events occurred. Age, sex, body mass index and systolic blood pressure (systolic prehypertension with overweight or obesity, systolic hypertension with normal weight/overweight or obesity), valvular disease and/or heart murmur, ischemic heart disease, smoking, and excessive drinking were associated with incident AF (C-statistic 0.73; 95% confidence intervals, 0.70-0.75).

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Impact of hypertension on the lifetime risk of coronary heart disease (2016)
  • Author(s): Chowdhury Turin T, Okamura T, Raheen Afzal A, Rumana N, Watanabe M, Higashiyama A, Nakao YM, Nakai M, Takegami M, Nishimura K, Kokubo Y, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: Hypertens Res Volume: ２３ Issue: 7 Pages: 548-51
  • DOI: 10.1038/hr.2016.23
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] High Levels of Soluble Lectin-Like Oxidized Low-Density Lipoprotein Receptor-1 in Acute Stroke: An Age- and Sex-Matched Cross-Sectional Study. (2016)
  • Author(s): Yokota C, Sawamura T, Watanabe M, Kokubo Y, Fujita Y, Kakino A, Nakai M, Toyoda K, Miyamoto Y, Minematsu K.
  • Journal Title: J Atheroscler Thromb Volume: ３９
  • NAID: 130005598268
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Hypertension and lifetime risk of stroke (2016)
  • Author(s): Turin TC, Okamura T, Afzal AR, Rumana N, Watanabe M, Higashiyama A, Nakao Y, Nakai M, Takegami M, Nishimura K, Kokubo Y, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y
  • Journal Title: J Hypertens Volume: ３４ Issue: 1 Pages: 116-22
  • DOI: 10.1097/hjh.0000000000000753
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impact of renal function deterioration on adverse events during anticoagulation therapy using non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation. (2016)
  • Author(s): Miyamoto K, Aiba T, Arihiro S, Watanabe M, Kokubo Y, Ishibashi K, Hirose S, Wada M, Nakajima I, Okamura H, Noda T, Nagatsuka K, Noguchi T, Anzai T, Yasuda S, Ogawa H, Kamakura S, Shimizu W, Miyamoto Y, Toyoda K, Kusano K.
  • Journal Title: Heart Vessels Volume: (in press) Issue: 8 Pages: 1327-1336
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00380-015-0725-6
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Does the utilization of dental services associate with masticatory performance in a Japanese urban population?: the Suita study (2015)
  • Author(s): Miki Kikui, Takahiro Ono, Momoyo Kida, Takayuki Kosaka, Masaaki Yamamoto, Yoko Yoshimuta, Sakae Yasui, Takashi Nokubi, Yoshinobu Maeda, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Makoto Watanabe, Yoshihiro Miyamoto
  • Journal Title: Clinical and Experimental Dental Research Volume: 1 Issue: 2 Pages: 57-62
  • DOI: 10.1002/cre2.10
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Effect of plasma fibrinogen, high sensitive C reactive protein, and cigarette smoking on carotid atherosclerosis: The Suita Study. (2015)
  • Author(s): Kawase Ishihara K, Kokubo Y, Yokota C, Hida Eisuke, Miyata T, Toyoda K, Matsumoto M, Minematsu K, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis. Volume: 24 Issue: 10 Pages: 2385-9
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2015.06.039
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Interaction of Blood Pressure and Body Mass Index With Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in a Japanese Urban Cohort: The Suita Study. (2015)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Watanabe M, Higashiyama A, Nakao YM, Kobayashi T, Watanabe T, Okamura T, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: Am J Hypertens. Volume: 28 Issue: 11 Pages: 1355-61
  • DOI: 10.1093/ajh/hpv038
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Higher blood pressure as a risk factor for diseases other than stroke and ischemic heart disease. (2015)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Iwashima Y.
  • Journal Title: Hypertension Volume: 66 Issue: 2 Pages: 254-9
  • DOI: 10.1161/hypertensionaha.115.03480
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] The new oral anticoagulants (NOAC) study in the ideal and the real world – Needs of prospective observational studies. (2015)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y
  • Journal Title: Circ J Volume: 79 Pages: 962-3
  • NAID: 130005066285
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] New Oral Anticoagulants (NOAC) Studies in the Ideal and the Real World – Needs of Prospective Observational Studies – (2015)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y.
  • Journal Title: Circulation Journal Volume: 79 Issue: 5 Pages: 962-963
  • DOI: 10.1253/circj.CJ-15-0326
  • NAID: 130005066285
  • ISSN: 1346-9843, 1347-4820
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] New Strategy to Reduce the Global Burden of Stroke. (2015)
  • Author(s): Feigin VL, Krishnamurthi R, Bhattacharjee R, Parmar P, Theadom A, Hussein T, Purohit M, Hume P, Abbott M, Rush E, Kasabov N, Crezee I, Frielick S, Barker-Collo S, Barber PA, Arroll B, Poulton R, Ratnasabathy Y, Tobias M, Cabral N, Martins SC, Furtado LE, Lindsay P, Kokubo Y (79著者中34番目)
  • Journal Title: Stroke Volume: 46 Issue: 6 Pages: 1740-1747
  • DOI: 10.1161/strokeaha.115.008222
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Detectability of ischemic lesions on diffusion-weighted imaging is biphasic after transient ischemic attack. (2015)
  • Author(s): Uno H, Nagatsuka K, Kokubo Y, Higashi M, Yamada N, Umesaki A, Toyoda K, Naritomi H.
  • Journal Title: J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis. Volume: 24 Issue: 5 Pages: 1059-1064
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2014.12.037
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] The Stroke Riskometer(TM) App: validation of a data collection tool and stroke risk predictor. (2015)
  • Author(s): Parmar P, Krishnamurthi R, Ikram MA, Hofman A, Mirza SS, Varakin Y, Kravchenko M, Piradov M, Thrift AG, Norrving B, Wang W, Mandal DK, Barker-Collo S, Sahathevan R, Davis S, Saposnik G, Kivipelto M, Sindi S, Bornstein NM, Giroud M, Béjot Y, Brainin M, Kokubo Y, Feigin VL. (42著者中27番目)
  • Journal Title: Int J Stroke Volume: 2 Issue: 2 Pages: 231-44
  • DOI: 10.1111/ijs.12411
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] The reasonable reliability of a self-administered food frequency questionnaire for an urban, Japanese, middle-aged population: the Suita study. (2015)
  • Author(s): Maruyama K, Kokubo Y, Yamanaka T, Watanabe M, Iso H, Okamura T, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: Nutr Res. Volume: 1 Issue: 1 Pages: 14-22
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.nutres.2014.10.012
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and incidences of coronary artery disease and ischemic stroke in Japanese: the Suita study. (2014)
  • Author(s): Tsukinoki R, Okamura T, Watanabe M, Kokubo Y, Higashiyama A, Nishimura K, Takegami M, Murakami Y, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: Am J Hypertens Volume: 11 Issue: 11 Pages: 1362-9
  • DOI: 10.1093/ajh/hpu059
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Predicting Coronary Heart Disease Using Risk Factor Categories for a Japanese Urban Population, and Comparison with the Framingham Risk Score: The Suita Study (2014)
  • Author(s): Nishimura K, Okamura T, Watanabe M, Nakai M, Takegami M, Higashiyama A, Kokubo Y, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis Volume: 21 Issue: 8 Pages: 784-798
  • DOI: 10.5551/jat.19356
  • NAID: 130004444796
  • ISSN: 1340-3478, 1880-3873
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Prevention of Hypertension and Cardiovascular Diseases: A Comparison of Lifestyle Factors in Westerners and East Asians. (2014)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y
  • Journal Title: Hypertension Volume: 63 Issue: 4 Pages: 655-660
  • DOI: 10.1161/hypertensionaha.113.00543
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Epidemiology of transient ischemic attack (2014)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y
  • Journal Title: Front Neurol Neurosci. Volume: 33 Pages: 69-81
  • DOI: 10.1159/000351892
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and the incidence of coronary artery disease and ischemic stroke in a Japanese urban cohort: The Suita Study. (2014)
  • Author(s): Tsukinoki R, Okamura T, Watanabe M, Kokubo Y, Higashiyama A, Nishimura K, Takegami M, Murakami Y, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: Am J Hypertens Volume: 2014 Apr 8
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Predicting Coronary Heart Disease Using Risk Factor Categories for a Japanese Urban Population, and Comparison with the Framingham Risk Score: The Suita Study. (2014)
  • Author(s): Nishimura K, Okamura T, Watanabe M, Nakai M, Takegami M, Higashiyama A, Kokubo Y, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: J Atheroscler Thromb Volume: 2014 Mar 25.
  • NAID: 130004444796
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Carotid atherosclerosis in kidney disease (2013)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y
  • Journal Title: Contrib Nephrol. Volume: 179 Pages: 35-41
  • DOI: 10.1159/000346720
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Effect of age on the association between waist-to-height ratio and incidence of cardiovascular disease: the Suita study. (2013)
  • Author(s): Tatsumi Y, Watanabe M, Kokubo Y, Nishimura K, Higashiyama A, Okamura T, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y
  • Journal Title: J Epidemiol. Volume: 23 Pages: 351-9
  • NAID: 10031194273
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Recent picture of infective endocarditis in Japan--lessons from Cardiac Disease Registration (CADRE-IE). (2013)
  • Author(s): Nakatani S, Mitsutake K, Ohara T, Kokubo Y, Yamamoto H, Hanai S; CADRE Investigators.
  • Journal Title: Circ J. Volume: 77 Pages: 1558-64
  • NAID: 10031158887
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Incidence Rate of Transient Ischemic Attack and Subsequent Stroke Incidence Rates: a Meta-analysis (2016)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Matsumoto C
  • Organizer: International Stroke Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Los Angels
  • Year and Date: 2016-02-16
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Prediction of All-cause and Stroke Mortalities by Carotid Intima-media Thickness in a General Population With a 13.7-year Follow-up: the Suita Study. (2016)
  • Author(s): 2.Kokubo Y, Watanabe M, Higashiyama A, Watanabe T, Miyamoto Y
  • Organizer: International Stroke Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Los Angels
  • Year and Date: 2016-02-16
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Differences in Stroke Rates and Risk Factors among Western and Asian Countries (2015)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Matsumoto C
  • Organizer: ICNE2015
  • Place of Presentation: Great Coast
  • Year and Date: 2015-11-17
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Risk Score for the Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation in the Japanese Community: The Suita Study (2015)
  • Author(s): 3.Kokubo Y, Watanabe M, Higashiyama A, Nakao YM, Watanabe T, Takegami M, Kusano K, Kamakura S, Miyamamo Y
  • Organizer: American Heart Association: Scientific Session 2015
  • Place of Presentation: Orlando
  • Year and Date: 2015-11-07
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Insulin Resistance and Cardiovascular Events in a General Urban Cohort: The Suita Study. (2015)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Watanabe M, Aya Higashiyama, Nakao YM, Watanabe T, Miyamoto Y.
  • Organizer: ESC2015
  • Place of Presentation: London
  • Year and Date: 2015-08-29
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] High body mass index and blood pressure categories increased risk of incident atrial fibrillation in a Japanese general population: the Suita Study (2015)
  • Author(s): Yoshihiro Kokubo, Makoto Watanabe, Aya Higashiyama, Yoko Nakao, Takashi Kobayashi, Takuya Watanabe, Yoshihiro Miyamoto
  • Organizer: The 79th Annual Scientific Meeting of the Japanese Circulation Society.
  • Place of Presentation: Osaka
  • Year and Date: 2015-04-24 – 2015-04-26
• [Presentation] Overweight and metabolic syndrome associated with stroke in Japanese population (2015)
  • Author(s): Yoshihiro Kokubo
  • Organizer: The 40th Annual Meeting of the Japan Stroke Society
  • Place of Presentation: Hiroshima
  • Year and Date: 2015-03-26 – 2015-03-29
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Updates on stroke epidemiology in Japan (2014)
  • Author(s): Yoshihiro Kokubo
  • Organizer: 4th International Conference on Neurology & Epidemiology
  • Place of Presentation: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
  • Year and Date: 2014-11-06 – 2014-11-08
  • Invited
• [Presentation] A Combination of Metabolic Syndrome Components Increased the Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in a General Urban Cohort: the Suita Study (2014)
  • Author(s): Yoshihiro Kokubo, Takashi Kobayashi, Makoto Watanabe, Shiro Kamakura, Kengo Kusano, Katsuyuki Kawanishi, and Yoshihiro Miyamoto.
  • Organizer: High Blood Pressure Research 2014, Scientific Sessions of American Heart Association
  • Place of Presentation: San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.
  • Year and Date: 2014-09-09 – 2014-09-12
• [Presentation] Combination of type 2 diabetes and overweight is linked to an increased incidence of atrial fibrillation in a general urban cohort population (2014)
  • Author(s): Yoshihiro Kokubo, Takashi Kobayashi, Makoto Watanabe, Shiro Kamakura, Kengo Kusano, Katsuyuki Kawanishi, Yoshihiro Miyamoto.
  • Organizer: The European Society of Cardiology Congress 2014.
  • Place of Presentation: Barcelona, Spain
  • Year and Date: 2014-08-30 – 2014-09-03
• [Presentation] COMBINED EFFECT OF SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE AND PROTEINURIA ON THE RISK OF INCIDENT ATRIAL FIBRILLATION IN AN URBAN JAPANESE COHORT: THE SUITA STUDY (2014)
  • Author(s): Yoshihiro Kokubo, Makoto Watanabe, Takashi Kobayashi, Kengo Kusano, Shiro Kamakura, Katsuyuki Kawanishi, Yoshihiro Miyamoto.
  • Organizer: Hypertension 2014: International Society of Hypertension
  • Place of Presentation: Athens, Greece
  • Year and Date: 2014-06-13 – 2014-06-16
• [Presentation] 都市部における脳卒中の大規模コホート研究 (2014)
  • Author(s): 小久保喜弘
  • Organizer: 第55回日本神経学会学術大会
  • Place of Presentation: 福岡市
  • Year and Date: 2014-05-21 – 2014-05-24
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Asian stroke epidemiology (2014)
  • Author(s): Yoshihiro Kokubo
  • Organizer: European Stroke Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Nice, France
  • Year and Date: 2014-05-06 – 2014-05-09
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Parental History of Stroke and Coronary Heart Disease and Incident Atrial Fibrillation According to Hypertension in a General Urban Population: The Suita Study. (2014)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Kobayashi T, Watanabe M, Kusano K, Kamakura S, Kawanishi, Miyamoto Y.
  • Organizer: EuroPrevent 2014
  • Place of Presentation: Amsterdam, Netherlands
• [Presentation] Asian Stroke Epidemiology (2014)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y
  • Organizer: European Stroke Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Nice, France
  • Invited
• [Presentation] A Prospective Study of Sleep Duration and the Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in an Urban Population: the Suita Study. (2014)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Kobayashi T, Watanabe M, Kusano K, Kamakura S, Miyamoto Y.
  • Organizer: ACC.14 (Scientific Session 2014 of the American College of Cardiology): The Best Poster Award
  • Place of Presentation: Washington, DC, WA, U.S.A
• [Presentation] Parental History of Stroke and Incident Atrial Fibrillation According to Blood Pressure Category in a General Urban Population: The Suita Study. (2014)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Watanabe M, Kobayashi T, Kamakura S, Aiba T, Kusano K, Kawanishi K, and Miyamoto Y.
  • Organizer: International Stroke Conference 2014 of the American Heart/Stroke Association
  • Place of Presentation: San Diego, CA, U.S.A.
• [Presentation] Maternal History of Myocardial Infarction and Incident Atrial Fibrillation According to Blood Pressure Category in a General Urban Population: The Suita Study. (2013)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Watanabe M, Kobayashi T, Kamakura S, Kawanishi K, Miyamoto Y.
  • Organizer: Scientific Session 2013 of the American Heart Association
  • Place of Presentation: Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Heart Murmur is a Strong Risk Factor for the Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in a General Urban Cohort: The Suita Study. (2013)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Watanabe M, Kobayashi T, Kamakura S, Kawanishi K, Miyamoto Y.
  • Organizer: Scientific Session 2013 of the American Heart Association
  • Place of Presentation: Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
• [Presentation] Stroke Incidence after Onset of Transient Ischemic Attack: A Meta-Analysis. (2013)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y
  • Organizer: International TIA/ACVS Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Tokyo, Japan
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Global strategies for non-communicable disease in terms of predictive, preventive and personalised medicine. (2013)
  • Author(s): Iso H, Kokubo Y
  • Organizer: EPMA-World Congress 2013
  • Place of Presentation: Brussels, Belgium
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Maternal History of Hypertension and Incident Atrial Fibrillation According to Blood Pressure Category in General Urban Population: The Suita Study. (2013)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Watanabe M, Kobayashi T, Kamakura S, Kawanishi K, Miyamoto Y.
  • Organizer: High Blood Pressure Research Scientific Session 2013 of the American Heart Association
  • Place of Presentation: New Orleans, LA, U.S.A.
• [Presentation] Impact of smoking and excessive drinking on the risk of incident atrial fibrillation in the Suita Study: an urban cohort study. (2013)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Watanabe M, Shimizu W, Kamakura S, Kada A, Kawanishi K, Miyamoto Y.
  • Organizer: European Society of Cardiology 2013
  • Place of Presentation: Amsterdam, Netherlands
• [Presentation] Impact of Major ST-T Abnormality and Hypertension on the Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in the Suita Study: an Urban Cohort Study. (2013)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Shimizu W, Watanabe M, Kamakura S, Kada A, Kawanishi K, Miyamoto Y.
  • Organizer: The 23rd European Meetings on Hypertension and Cardiovascular Protection
  • Place of Presentation: Milan, Italy
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Left Ventricular Hypertrophy as a Predictor of Incident Atrial Fibrillation and the Effect of Hypertension in the Suita Study: an Urban Cohort Study. (2013)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Shimizu W, Watanabe M, Kamakura S, Kada A, Kawanishi K, Miyamoto Y.
  • Organizer: Heart Failure 2013 of European Society of Cardiology
  • Place of Presentation: Lisbon, Portugal
• [Presentation] 日本の高血圧疫学研究 最新の知見 正常高値血圧と循環器病発症との関係について (2013)
  • Author(s): 小久保喜弘
  • Organizer: 日本高血圧学会
  • Place of Presentation: 大阪
  • Invited
• [Book] Pathophysiology and Pharmacotherapy of Cardiovascular Disease (2015)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Iwashima Y, Kamide K
  • Total Pages: 1200
  • Publisher: Springer
• [Book] Introduction to Hypertension: Types, Causes and Complications. In: Jagadeesh G, Balakumar P, Khin Maung U, eds. Pathophysiology and Pharmacotherapy of Cardiovascular Disease (2015)
  • Author(s): Kokubo Y, Iwashima Y, Kamide K.
  • Total Pages: 16
  • Publisher: Springer