Risk evaluation of individuals and groups
| Project/Area Number |
25380472
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Management
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| Research Institution | Tokyo Metropolitan University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2013-04-01 – 2018-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
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| Keywords | リスク評価 / 意思決定 / 個人と集団 / エル・ファロル問題 / リスク / リスク認知 / 集団 / 自己楽観バイアス / 時間割引 / 社会的比較判断 / 自己と他者 / 確率 / 重大度 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We developed a serial decision-making game based on "El Farol Bar problem". Participants were 7 individuals and 7 groups. There were no significant differences between individuals and groups according to risk seeking, simplicity of forecasting, and the decision after success. Groups were inclined to repeat the failed decisions than individuals.
An experiment was conducted using undergraduate students (N = 226). Participants evaluated the risk of a certain kind of earthquake from analytical aspect (probability) and emotional aspect (fear). Participants who evaluated the probability first reported low score of fear (p<.001). Participants who evaluated fear first reported high score of probability (p<.01). It is implied that analytical evaluation decreases the emotion and emotional evaluation increases the subjective probability of the risk.
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Report
(6 results)
Research Products
(6 results)
