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Risk evaluation of individuals and groups

Research Project

Project/Area Number 25380472
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Management
Research InstitutionTokyo Metropolitan University

Principal Investigator

Nagase Katsuhiko  首都大学東京, 社会科学研究科, 教授 (70237519)

Project Period (FY) 2013-04-01 – 2018-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Keywordsリスク評価 / 意思決定 / 個人と集団 / エル・ファロル問題 / リスク / リスク認知 / 集団 / 自己楽観バイアス / 時間割引 / 社会的比較判断 / 自己と他者 / 確率 / 重大度
Outline of Final Research Achievements

We developed a serial decision-making game based on "El Farol Bar problem". Participants were 7 individuals and 7 groups. There were no significant differences between individuals and groups according to risk seeking, simplicity of forecasting, and the decision after success. Groups were inclined to repeat the failed decisions than individuals.
An experiment was conducted using undergraduate students (N = 226). Participants evaluated the risk of a certain kind of earthquake from analytical aspect (probability) and emotional aspect (fear). Participants who evaluated the probability first reported low score of fear (p<.001). Participants who evaluated fear first reported high score of probability (p<.01). It is implied that analytical evaluation decreases the emotion and emotional evaluation increases the subjective probability of the risk.

Report

(6 results)
  • 2017 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (6 results)

All 2018 2017 2016 2015

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Open Access: 2 results) Presentation (1 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] リスクの感情評価と確率評価2018

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Journal Title

      首都大学東京大学院社会科学研究科リサーチペーパーシリーズ

      Volume: 192 Pages: 1-13

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] リスクの感情評価と分析評価:先の評価が後の評価に及ぼす影響2017

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Journal Title

      首都大学東京大学院社会科学研究科経営学専攻リサーチペーパーシリーズ

      Volume: 179 Pages: 1-13

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] エル・ファロル問題における個人と集団の意思決定2016

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Journal Title

      首都大学東京大学院社会科学研究科経営学専攻リサーチペーパーシリーズ

      Volume: 159 Pages: 1-12

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 自己楽観バイアスと時間割引2015

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Journal Title

      首都大学東京大学院社会科学研究科経営学専攻リサーチペーパーシリーズ

      Volume: 148 Pages: 1-12

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 心理学は経済学から何が学べるのか2015

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Organizer
      産業・組織心理学会部門別研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      筑波大学社会人大学院キャンパス(東京都・文京区)
    • Year and Date
      2015-03-07
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 人材開発白書20152015

    • Author(s)
      富士ゼロックス総合教育研究所,岩井睦雄,川口淳一郎,長瀬勝彦
    • Total Pages
      54
    • Publisher
      富士ゼロックス総合教育研究所
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-07-25   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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