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Detecting and predicting influenza epidemics using Internet-based data.

Research Project

Project/Area Number 25460801
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Hygiene and public health
Research InstitutionTottori University

Principal Investigator

INOUE Masashi  鳥取大学, 総合メディア基盤センター, 教授 (00176439)

Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) OKAMOTO Mikizo  鳥取大学, 医学部, 講師 (40032205)
Project Period (FY) 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywordsインフルエンザ / 流行予測 / ビッグデータ / 感染症 / インターネット / SNS / Twitter / Webマイニング
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Having forecasts for infectious diseases can help support risk management and effective intervention against the outbreak of disease. Recently, Internet data from, for example, Google Trends and Twitter have been highlighted as valuable for faster detection of disease morbidity. The possibility to forecast the future incidence of influenza was analyzed using time series analysis based on retrospective data from the Japanese infectious disease surveillance. And also we investigated whether Internet data are promising data sources for monitoring influenza incidence. Several models were evaluated to find a model yielding the most accurate prediction. A nearest neighbor method was regarded as the best-fir model for the prediction. A comparison between the weekly number of Twitter messages containing the term of influenza and the national surveillance data revealed a strong relationship between both. Twitter messages seemed to be a useful data source to survey the influenza epidemic.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2015 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (7 results)

All 2015 2014 2013

All Journal Article (3 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 3 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 2 results) Presentation (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] WEB-BASED INFORMATION SYSTEM TO SUPPORT RISK MANAGEMENT FOR THE PREVENTION OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE OUTBREAKS.2015

    • Author(s)
      Masashi Inoue, Shinsaku Hasegawa
    • Journal Title

      WWW/INTERNET 2015 Proceedings

      Volume: 1 Pages: 215-217

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] ビッグデータを用いた感染症流行予測の試み2015

    • Author(s)
      井上 仁、長谷川伸作
    • Journal Title

      第35回日本医療情報学連合大会講演論文集

      Volume: 1 Pages: 382-385

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Development of a Web-based Data Visualization System for Comprehensible Ascertainment of the Spatiotemporal Extent of Infectious Diseases.2013

    • Author(s)
      Masashi Inoue, Shinsaku Hasegawa, Akihiko Suyama, Masayuki Kakehashi
    • Journal Title

      Japan Journal of Medical Informatics

      Volume: 33 Pages: 27-32

    • NAID

      130005058914

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] ビッグデータを用いた感染症流行予測の試み2015

    • Author(s)
      井上 仁、長谷川伸作
    • Organizer
      第35回日本医療情報学連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      沖縄県宜野湾市、沖縄コンベンションセンター
    • Year and Date
      2015-11-01
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] WEB-BASED INFORMATION SYSTEM TO SUPPORT RISK MANAGEMENT FOR THE PREVENTION OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE OUTBREAKS.2015

    • Author(s)
      Masashi Inoue, Shinsaku Hasegawa
    • Organizer
      WWW/INTERNET
    • Place of Presentation
      Ireland, Dublin
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-24
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] DETECTING AND PREDICTING INFLUENZA EPIDEMICS IN JAPAN USING INTERNET-BASED DATA2014

    • Author(s)
      Masashi INOUE
    • Organizer
      e-Health 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      Lisbon, Portugal
    • Year and Date
      2014-07-15 – 2014-07-19
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] WEB-BASED DATA PRESENTATION SYSTEM TO SUPPORT RISK MANAGEMENT FOR THE PREVENTION OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE OUTBREAKS.2013

    • Author(s)
      Masashi Inoue, Shinsaku Hasegawa, Akihiko Suyama, Masayuki Kakehashi
    • Organizer
      IADIS International Conference WWW/INTERNET 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Fort Worth, USA
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-07-25   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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