Spatio-temporal point process models for the spread of influenza in Japan

• Project/Area Number: 25730012
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Statistical science
• Research Institution: Yamagata University
• Principal Investigator: SAKAGUCHI Takayuki 山形大学, 教育文化学部, 講師 (10436496)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
• Budget Amount: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000); Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
• Keywords: 時空間点過程 / インフルエンザ

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of this study is to construct a model which explains the spread of influenza in Japan. The data collected in Miyagi prefecture were used. There are 8 healthcare centers in Miyagi prefecture. The weekly number of influenza patients reported from each healthcare center is available. We constructed a basic model for the data. It is helpful to use auxiliary variables, for example, information about the flow of people. However the use of auxiliary variables causes so-called Change of Support Problem. We investigated the possibility of using auxiliary variables observed at different spatial scales. In the future, the basic model needs to be developed by using auxiliary variables.