| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
|
|---|
| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We built a system to improve the accuracy of earthquake forecasting model based on observing the phenomena correlated with the earthquake and estimating the earthquake occurrence (preceding model). Specifically, the system provides a platform for prospective forecasting based on preceding models, and a fairly evaluations of the score of the preceding models. As a result of this, suspicion of the preceding model which had been publicly announced as a retrospective forecasting - the prediction was modified by the modeler of the preceding model after the earthquake occurred - was dispelled. Then, we became able to know the real forecasting abilities of the preceding models. The modelers can grasp the ability of their models by repeating the submission and evaluation of their predictions using this system. This system leads to improvement of models.
|
