Probabilistic seasonal forecast of extreme events based on a numerical climate model
| Project/Area Number |
26800243
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
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| Research Institution | Japan, Meteorological Research Institute |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
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| Keywords | 季節予報 / 異常気象の確率予測 / ラージアンサンブル / 気候モデル / ダウンスケーリング / 九州豪雨 / 異常気象予測 / 確率予測 / 極値解析 / 異常気象 / 統計的ダウンスケーリング |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
It is challenging to apply the seasonal prediction system based on a numerical climate model to probabilistic forecast of local extreme events such as orographic local heavy rainfall due to lack of ensemble size and spatial resolution. In this work, I conducted large-ensemble seasonal hindcast in combination with dynamical downscaling based on a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), and challenged probabilistic hindcast of local extreme heavy rainfall in Kyushu.
The RCM can capture regional differences in heavy rainfall processes, resulting in improved potential predictability of the event probability. Furthermore, probabilistic prediction skill has also been improved through the use of enough ensemble members, although it does not reach a level of practical use. Further advanced numerical models are required.
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(24 results)
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[Journal Article] Forced response and internal variability of summer climate over western North America2017
Author(s)
Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, Y. Imada, M. Mori, O. Arakawa, R. Mizuta, K. Yoshida, C. Takahashi, M. Arai, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, S.-P. Xie, and H. Ueda
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Journal Title
Climate Dynamics
Volume: 印刷中
Issue: 1-2
Pages: 403-417
DOI
NAID
Related Report
Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
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[Journal Article] Attributing Historical Changes in Probabilities of Record-Breaking Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events2016
Author(s)
Shiogama, H., Y. Imada, M. Mori, R. Mizuta, D. Stone, K. Yoshida, O. Arakawa, M. Ikeda, C. Takahashi, M. rai, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto
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Journal Title
SOLA
Volume: 12
Issue: 0
Pages: 225-231
DOI
NAID
ISSN
1349-6476
Related Report
Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
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