1992 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Dynamic forecasts of dairy farming structure; using expert systems
| Project/Area Number |
03806035
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Agro-economics
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
OSANAMI Fumio Hokkaido Univ. Agricultural Economics,Associate Professor, 農学部, 助教授 (00113697)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
MARUYAMA Akira Rakuno-gakuen Univ. General Education,Lecturer, 教養部, 講師 (60173960)
HIROMASA Yukio Hokkaido Univ. Agricultural Economics,Associate Professor, 農学部, 助手 (00173295)
KUROKAWA Isao Hokkaido Univ. Agricultural Economics,Associate Professor, 農学部, 助教授 (90125310)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1991 – 1992
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| Keywords | Dairy Industry / Structure of Production Scale / Dynamic Forecast / Artificial Programming Language / Expert System / Markof Transition Probability / Scale Economy / Technological Innovation |
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| Research Abstract |
The collecting and data service systems of Farm data and other related agricultural information have been established rapidly in many local agricultural cooperatives and governments. But the data is not so much utilized in planning regional agricultural policy and forecasting regional agricultural structure, because there are not so many methods which are appropriate to utilize these data and the limits of data itself.
The regional leaders' experience and knowledge are introduced into the expert system to forecast regional economic situation more efficiently and flexible. Forecasting ability of the structure of dairy farm scale using Markof method has been improved introducing artificial intelligence programming. The knowledge of experts is used to make transition matrix in the expert system. The system dynamics model is also examined as a tool of local policy decision making process. The DEMATEL method is very effective to make clear the target of policy in local agricultural region.
The positive analysis have also done in this study to test the scale of economy in dairy farm sector. The conditions to restrict enlarging the farm scale, such as restriction of family labor, the difference of adopted technique and managerial ability are also examined. The comparison of dairy farm data between Hokkaido and New York State showed that enough labor extending family labor is necessary to adopt new dairy farming technology, Free stall barn and Milking parlor system. These results might be included in expert systems as a important information.
The study has not completed yet especially in dynamic forecast using artificial programing languages. We showed just the possibility of such method and proto-type in this study.
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