East Asian high economic growth giving impact on energy market and demand/supply structure

1997 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary

• Project/Area Number: 08630063
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: 経済政策(含経済事情)
• Research Institution: Ritsumeikan University
• Principal Investigator: KARASAWA Kei Ritsumeikan Univ.International Relations Professor, 国際関係学部, 教授 (60149789)
• Project Period (FY): 1996 – 1997
• Keywords: economic growth / export-led industrialization / increasing energy demand / depemdency on ME oil / energy security / Asian economic crisis

Research Abstract

Since 1980s, East Asian countries has made unprecedented economic development to become the most promissing area of economic development. It has resulted from a large-scale introduction of foreign capital and successful export-led industrialization. The high economic growth was secured by rapid growth of exports of industrial commodities, capital accumulation, agricultural productivity and so on. On the other hand, it has given serious impact on energy market and supply/demand structure of the region.
It is largely believed that increasing demand of energy in the region has resulted from explosive increase of population. But it has chiefly resulted from rapid economic growth and urbanization. In accordance with proceeded industrialization, energy demand has steadly increased, while enlarged demand and supply gap of energy has been built in the structure. Oil is playing a major role in rapidly-increasing demand and enlarged gap of energy. Though it is often cited that coal has a big shar e in the energy consumption of the region, oil consumption has increased so rapidly in every country excluding China. East Asian nations are extremely volatile to energy supply and refining capacity against increasing demand of crude oil and petroleum commodities, which is covered by capital investment in the construction of domestic facilities and increased exports. As a result, most of the countries in the region have rapidly deepened their dependency on Middle East oil and gas. In the long term, huge demand of oil and oil commodities and deepening dependency on the Middle East energy will give serious impact on the energy supply/demand structure of the world.
The three tasks are vital for East Asian economies 1)to secure oil supply against increasing demand, 2)to materialize energy efficiency and qualified conversion, and 3)to introduce environmental preservation. Asian economic crisis in 1997 has resulted in decreasing energy demand and prices. East Asia's oil demand which occupied 95% of the world total has rapidly fallen, the price fell by $5 per a barrel. There is no sign, however, for changing the demand/supply structure of energy. It is needed to change quality, scale and speed of economic growth and secure stable supply and the most suitable assignment of energy.