ANALYSIS OF LOGISTICS FACILITY LOCATION CHOICE IN THE TOKYO METROPOLITAN AREA USING DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS WITH SPATIAL CORRELATION

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K06247
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
• Research Institution: Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology
• Principal Investigator: HYODO TETSURO 東京海洋大学, 学術研究院, 教授 (40218748)
• Research Collaborator: Kawamura Kazuya the University of Illinois at Chicago, Professor
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 物流施設立地選択 / 空間相関 / 商用車プローブ / 離散選択モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

There has been a noticeable development of logistics facilities along the newly constructed circumferential expressway in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. This paper aims to examine the effectiveness of alternative formulations of discrete choice models, including spatial auto-regressive probit and mixed logit models.
The data from the 2013 Tokyo Metropolitan Freight Survey were used to compare the characteristics of several models. To apply the model, the Tokyo area was partitioned into approximately 18,000 1km by 1km grids. The independent variables include population density, employment, land price, land use, access to interchanges, and others. We estimated the location choice model with spatial correlations including Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model with both probit and mixed-logit approaches. The mixed-logit model that incorporates both spatial lag and spatial error terms produced the best results.

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