Lifetime effects of unruptured intracranial aneurysms

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K10292
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Neurosurgery
• Research Institution: Gunma University
• Principal Investigator: Yoshimoto Yuhei 群馬大学, 大学院医学系研究科, 教授 (50242061)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 未破裂脳動脈瘤 / マルコフモデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

A mathematical model of the natural history of intracranial aneurysms was constructed, in which the hypothetical individuals with or without unruptured aneurysm transit between discrete health states. The annual rupture rate of small aneurysms was assumed to be 0.5%. The analyses were continued until cumulative death rate from subarachnoid hemorrhage or other causes reached 1.0.
Age-specific ratios of death of subarachnoid hemorrhage in the individuals harboring unruptured aneurysm, if dying at 60 years old, were 25% in males and 43% in females. These ratios decreased rapidly with higher age. The majority (more than 90%) of patients with small aneurysms were expected to die of diseases other than subarachnoid hemorrhage. In the baseline analysis, lifetime lost to small aneurysms could be estimated as 3.8% for males and 4.2% for females, but somewhat larger impact could be identified in the young and/or female individuals than in the elderly and/or male individuals.

Free Research Field

脳神経外科