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2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Building population estimation systems for a period of population decline

Research Project

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Project/Area Number 15K16883
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Human geography
Research InstitutionRitsumeikan University (2016-2017)
Tohoku University (2015)

Principal Investigator

HANAOKA KAZUMASA  立命館大学, 文学部, 准教授 (90454511)

Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
Keywords人口減少 / マイクロデータ / 小地域 / 地理情報システム / 統計分析 / 公的調査 / ビッグデータ
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of this research project is to build a population estimation system in the population decline period by using a spatial microsimulation method. The method was applied to construct a large scale synthetic population microdata and simulate population dynamics. The major findings can be summarized as follows: (1) synthetic population microdata at the small-area level covering the whole Japan were constructed from anonymized non-geographic census microdata, and (2) logit analyses were applied to model effects of various factors in demographic changes. We further incorporated the results to construct a prototype model for areal population estimation. Our results and applications were presented in several academic journals in the field of geography and demography.

Free Research Field

地理情報科学

URL: 

Published: 2019-03-29  

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