2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Decadal climate variability and predictability over the South Atlantic and southern Indian Oceans
| Project/Area Number |
15K17768
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
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| Research Institution | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology |
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Principal Investigator |
MORIOKA Yushi 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, アプリケーションラボ, 研究員 (90724625)
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| Research Collaborator |
DOI Takeshi
TAGUCHI Bunmei
Behera Swadhin Kumar
Engelbrecht Francois
Storto Andrea
Iovino Dorotea
Masina Simona
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Keywords | 気候変動予測 / 十年規模変動 / 南大西洋 / 南インド洋 / 海面水温 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Physical processes and predictability on decadal climate variability over the South Atlantic and southern Indian Oceans are revealed by performing data analysis and climate model experiments. Decadal variability of sea-surface temperature (SST) over the South Atlantic is found to be driven by meridional and vertical heat transport associated with the overlying atmospheric variability. The SST variations propagate eastward along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and induce decadal SST variability over the southern Indian Ocean. It is also suggested that the atmospheric variability over the South Atlantic may be influenced by sea-ice variability over the Weddell Sea. Furthermore, a state-of-the-art climate model shows high skills in predicting decadal SST variability over the South Atlantic and southern Indian Oceans up to 10 years ahead. Based on these results, 6 international papers have been published and press releases on the 2 articles have been made.
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| Free Research Field |
気候力学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
海面水温の十年規模変動は直上に大気の変動を伴い、周辺域に長期の気候変動をもたらす。そのため、十年規模変動の仕組みを理解し、予測することは気候研究において重要である。北半球の海面水温に見られる十年規模変動はこれまで数多くの研究が行われてきたが、南半球の十年規模変動は観測データが乏しく、物理プロセスや予測可能性は十分に調べられてこなかった。本研究の成果により、南大西洋と南インド洋の十年規模変動に新たな知見を加えることができた。また、南大西洋と南インド洋の十年規模変動は、アフリカ南部の降水量に十年規模変動をもたらすため、十年規模変動の予測を通して降水量の長期予測に貢献することが期待される。
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