2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Extension of energy scenario analysis to deal with rapid technical change (surprises) and possible application for policy process
| Project/Area Number |
15K20923
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Environmental policy and social systems
Energy engineering
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Research Collaborator |
KAJIKAWA Yuya 東京工業大学, 環境・社会理工学院, 准教授 (70401148)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2017-03-31
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| Keywords | エネルギー・モデル / エネルギー・シナリオ / 不確実性 / 技術変化 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Energy scenarios constitute a basic tool to assess long-term climate policy and energy policy. They, however, suffer from biases and various problems. This study investigated into how the scenarios utilized for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) deal with sudden changes in technology (surprises). Scenarios underestimated penetration of solar photovoltaics (PV) by using overly high cost parameters for solar PV and deviating from the typical pattern of learning/experience curves. For technologies with rapid changes such as solar PV, analysts should update the input assumptions for energy models and scenarios frequently and also explore a larger range of technology parameters.
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| Free Research Field |
エネルギー・環境政策
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