Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of vector-borne diseases

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K20936
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Epidemiology and preventive medicine; Social systems engineering/Safety system
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University (2016-2017); The University of Tokyo (2015)
• Principal Investigator: Mizumoto Kenji 北海道大学, 医学研究院, 客員研究員 (90730218)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 感染症疫学 / 数理モデル / 統計 / アウトブレイク / リスク推定

Outline of Final Research Achievements

As Zika virus has spread internationally through countries in the South Pacific and Americas, I mainly focused on the ZIKV infection, one of the vector-borne diseases.
A)The transmissibility of Zika virus infection appears to be comparable to those of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Considering that Aedes species are a shared vector, this finding indicates that Zika virus replication within the vector is perhaps comparable to dengue and chikungunya. B)The time interval between peaks of reported dengue-like illness and microcephaly was consistent with cause-outcome relationship. Our modeling framework predicts that the incidence of microcephaly is expected to steadily decline in early 2016, Brazil. C) Considering that the public health concerns over ZIKV infection stems from microcephaly, it is more important to focus on the risk of local and widespread transmission that could involve pregnant women.

Free Research Field

感染症疫学