Impact assessment of climate changes in past and future on the rock ptarmigan in Japan

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16H04943
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Forest science
• Research Institution: Forest Research and Management Organization
• Principal Investigator: Tsuyama Ikutaro 国立研究開発法人森林研究・整備機構, 森林総合研究所, 主任研究員 等 (80725648)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 松井 哲哉 国立研究開発法人森林研究・整備機構, 森林総合研究所, 主任研究員 等 (20414493) ; 江田 真毅 北海道大学, 総合博物館, 准教授 (60452546) ; 比嘉 基紀 高知大学, 教育研究部自然科学系理工学部門, 講師 (60709385) ; 西海 功 独立行政法人国立科学博物館, 動物研究部, 研究主幹 (90290866)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: 潜在生息域 / 分布変遷 / 気候変動 / 脆弱性評価 / 集団遺伝構造 / 遺跡試料 / 古文書

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We reached following hypotheses on changes of the rock ptarmigan distribution in Japan after late Pleistocene: the rock ptarmigan had migrated from Eurasia to western Japan via Korean Peninsula, and the species has not reached Hokkaido Island; the rock ptarmigan had migrated from Eurasia to Honshu Island via Hokkaido, and the population in Hokkaido had disappeared for some reason except changes in vegetation before the last glacial maximum.
The rock ptarmigan populations in Southern Alps are considered to be most vulnerable to the future climate change and have high priority to be protected: they have low number of individuals and least genetic diversity in the world; most of their potential habitat was predicted to disappear at the end of this century.
Mt Fuji and Mts Daisetsu, located in out of current habitat of the rock ptarmigan, were only predicted to be as future refugia. Adaptive strategy such as assisted migration will be required for the conservation of the species in Japan.

Free Research Field

植物生態学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

ニホンライチョウの分布変遷を潜在生息域（生息環境の好適さ）の変化や遺跡試料、遺伝情報に基づいて予測し、マップ化した世界で初めての研究であり、学術的な価値は高い。遺伝情報や、将来の気候変動による生息環境への影響予測に基づいて、最も保全の優先順位が高い集団を特定したことは、ニホンライチョウの保護増殖事業を進める上で重要な基盤情報となり得る。