International funds surplus, global interest rates, long-term stagnation: Re-expansion of global external imbalances and its impact and policy response

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K03743
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Money/ Finance
• Research Institution: Kobe University
• Principal Investigator: Matsubayashi Yoichi 神戸大学, 経済学研究科, 教授 (90239062)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 長期停滞 / グローバルインバランス / 投資

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this research, the possibility of long-term stagnation in various countries in the world is grasped from the global angle, and the research theme of "international funds surplus, global interest rate, long-term stagnation" is set, and theoretical and quantitative consideration is made from multiple angles. To go. Furthermore, it is clear that new policy responses will be essential through such consideration.
Throughout the study period 1) empirically examine the relationship between global funding surplus and long-term stagnation, 2) perspective on the trend of the global economy from the 1980s to the present, 3) perspective and consideration on global imbalances from the 1980s onwards 3 Was able to achieve one outcome. In particular, from the first study, it has become clear that the declining trend in global interest rates (that is, the global long-term stagnation) is mainly attributable to the slump in investment in each country.

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

世界金融危機以降各国では潜在成長率が傾向的に低下している。緩和的経済政策にも拘わらず、潜在成長率を上昇させていない。また長期停滞に伴い各国では一時的な景気回復にも拘わらず閉塞感が漂っており、こうした風潮は為政者へ反駁とともに、大衆迎合的なスタンスへと変質しつつある。このように長期停滞という問題を深く考察することは、経済政策の有効性のみならず政治的、社会的な課題に対しても考察を深化させる一助となる。