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2019 Fiscal Year Research-status Report

不良債権と不動産バブルの日米中の実証と理論研究

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K03764
Research InstitutionFukuoka University

Principal Investigator

万 軍民  福岡大学, 経済学部, 教授 (40423123)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2021-03-31
KeywordsBubble Premium / Bubble / Speculation / Lease Hold / Free Hold / Non-performing Loans / Branch Deregulation / Bank
Outline of Annual Research Achievements

Bubble Occurrence and Landing
期限付所有権(lease hold)の土地制度でもバブルが起こるのを発見した。その必要十分条件はバブル・プレミアム(Wan, 2018, International Review of Economics and Finance, vol.56, pp.190-204)と投機である。Wan (2018)に時間をゼロにして利子率がゼロとなり、十分多くの危険中立投資家はバブル・プレミアムで時点内裁定が満たされ均衡が実現される。さらに、時間をプラスにして利子率が正となり、異時点間裁定と時点内裁定が同時に成立する均衡を発見し、バブル予防とランディングに有効策を発見した。これは期限付所有権(lease hold)と無期限所有権(free hold)を持った英国土地制度でも合理的バブルが検出された(Giglio, Stefano, Matteo Maggiori, and Johannes Stroebel 2016, Econometrica, 84(3), pp.1047-1091)ことに対して、初めて解釈を与えた。

Non-performing Loans and Branch Deregulation
銀行支店開設は日米中とも関連規制がある。中国では2009-2014年に地方銀行支店新設は緩和された。一方、四大銀行支店新設は制限されていなかった。よって、この規制緩和は行政が銀行行動に与える影響を検証する準社会実験とみなせる。2007-2017年の1,700超個票パネル推定で規制緩和が銀行業集中度と利益率を減らしたが、緩和による支店と従業員数の上昇が不良債権を増加した。この実証結果を説明する理論として、寡占市場で規制が一時的に緩和されると、銀行は長期利益のため短期の不良債権を参入コストと見なして規模拡大すると考えられる。

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

バブル予防、ソフト・ランディングとハード・ランディングについて、知られていないところが多いことが分かった。特に、期限付所有権(lease hold)の土地制度においてバブルが発生するのを説明する理論が無いことを知り、大変驚いた。そこで、自分が発見したバブル・プレミアム(Wan 2018)を用いて理論的な説明を試み、バブル発生の必要十分条件の発見に繋いだが、多くの時間が費やされた。新たな研究へのスイッチが大変だった。

また、当初計画された銀行支店の研究は、金融行政と深く関わっているので、関連文献が膨大である。さらに、銀行支店のデータは予想していたデータベースから入手できず、結局、中国の各銀行の年次報告書を逐次解読し、推計等を経て1,700以上の銀行個票データを整備できたが、実証分析まで時間がかかった。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

期限付所有権(lease hold)に関するバブル発生の研究の原稿を改訂し、経済学専門誌に投稿する。

銀行支店新設緩和と不良債権に関する研究の原稿を改訂し、金融系または経済学専門誌に投稿する。

銀行の不良債権は、お客さん企業(非金融企業)の投資収益性が悪化したことに起因するので、あくまで融資先の悪い結果である。よって、非金融企業は、不動産バブルが起こる場合、なぜ一見不合理そうな過剰投資をするかについて、実証的、かつ、理論的に解明を試みる。

Causes of Carryover

次年度使用額(154円)が生じた理由は、税金等における微小なところが計画されなかったことである。
使用計画として、繰越の金額は、次年度の研究のための物品費に使う。

  • Research Products

    (34 results)

All 2020 2019 Other

All Journal Article (11 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (21 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 5 results,  Invited: 6 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Synchronized job transfer and task-specific human capital2020

    • Author(s)
      Katsuya Takii, Masaru Sasaki, Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: 56 Pages: 1-19

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jjie.2020.101075

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The Impact of Housing Bubbles on Industrial Investments in China2020

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan and Qiqi Qiu
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper Series, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2020-06 Pages: 1-61

  • [Journal Article] Corporate Saving, Household Saving, and Gross National Savings: Analysis by Provincial Panel and Time Series Data in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper Series, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-017 Pages: 1-36

  • [Journal Article] The Effective Life and Value of Capital2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper Series, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-016 Pages: 1-40

  • [Journal Article] 中国部門別貯蓄1952-20182019

    • Author(s)
      万軍民
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-015 Pages: 1-35

  • [Journal Article] ``US-China Trade War'' Viewed from Speculative Saving2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-014 Pages: 1-56

  • [Journal Article] Depreciation Rate by Perpetual Inventory Method and Depreciation Expense as Accounting Item2019

    • Author(s)
      Qiqi Qiu and Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-012 Pages: 1-31

  • [Journal Article] Economic Experience and Lesson from Tokyo Bay Area: Industrial Agglomeration, Congestion, and Land Bubble2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-010 Pages: 1-21

  • [Journal Article] Investments in Service Sectors and Housing Prices in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan and Junren Yin
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-004 Pages: 1-36

  • [Journal Article] Depreciation Rate by Industrial Sector in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Qiqi Qiu and Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-003 Pages: 1-32

  • [Journal Article] Restriction of Speculation and Housing Market in Changsha2019

    • Author(s)
      Zhaoxin Niu and Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-002 Pages: 1-31

  • [Presentation] The Effective Life and Value of Capital2020

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      2020 Spring Meeting of Japanese Economic Association
  • [Presentation] Industrial Investments and Housing Prices in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      The 6th International Conference on The Chinese Economy: Past, Present and Future
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Taxation and Bubble2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Seminar, School of Taxation, Central University of Economics and Finance
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The Effective Life and Value of Capital2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University
  • [Presentation] Depreciate Rate by Industrial Sector in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      2019 Autumn Meeting of Japanese Economic Association
  • [Presentation] Economic Experience and Lesson from Tokyo Bay Area: Industrial Agglomerations, Congestion, and Land Bubble2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      UK, Coventry University, Business School, Seminar
  • [Presentation] Depreciation Rate by Perpetual Inventory Method and Depreciation Expense as Accounting Item2019

    • Author(s)
      Qiqi Qiu and Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Asia-Pacific Economic Association
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Industrial Investments and Housing Prices in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Qiqi Qiu and Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Asia-Pacific Economic Association
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Economic Experience and Lesson from Tokyo Bay Area: Industrial Agglomerations, Congestion, and Land Bubble2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      UK, University of Edinburgh, Business School, Seminar
  • [Presentation] Industrial Investments and Housing Prices in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      2019 Spring Meeting of Japanese Economic Association
  • [Presentation] Effective Life and Value of Capital2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Economics and Management Advanced Forum, Wuhan University of Technology
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Economic Experience and Lesson from Tokyo Bay Area: Industrial Agglomerations, Congestion, and Land Bubble2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      International Conference Greater Bay Area (Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau): Global Business, Technology and Cultural Perspectives
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Depreciation Rate and Market Value Implied by Book Value of Capital Stock2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Center for Advanced Economic Study, Fukuoka University
  • [Presentation] The Effective Life and Value of Capital2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Workshop of Economics in Fukuoka
  • [Presentation] The Effective Life and Value of Capital2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      The 1st Workshop of Keio and Fukuoka University
  • [Presentation] Industrial Investments and Housing Prices in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Qiqi Qiu and Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      1st Workshop of Keio and Fukuoka University
  • [Presentation] The Effective Life and Value of Capital2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Workshop of Professor Kazuo Ogawa's Research Seminar
  • [Presentation] Industrial Investments and Housing Prices in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Workshop of Professor Kazuo Ogawa's Research Seminar
  • [Presentation] Bubble Occurrence and Landing2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Seminar at Chu Hai College of Higher Education, Hong Kong
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Bubble Occurrence and Landing2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Seminar, School of International Finance, Sun Yat-sen University
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Bubble Occurrence and Landing2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Seminar, School of International Finance, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies
    • Invited
  • [Remarks] 福岡大学研究者情報(研究業績)

    • URL

      https://resweb2.jhk.adm.fukuoka-u.ac.jp/FukuokaUnivHtml/info/4474/R110E.html?P=1582864169981

  • [Remarks] 福岡大学経済学部万軍民ホームページ(研究業績)

    • URL

      http://www3.econ.fukuoka-u.ac.jp/~wan/CV_Wan_1May2020.pdf

URL: 

Published: 2021-01-27  

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