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2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Future projection of extreme precipitation intensity using a global cloud-system resolving model

Research Project

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Project/Area Number 16K05560
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
Research InstitutionJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Principal Investigator

YOKOI Satoru  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球環境部門(大気海洋相互作用研究プログラム), 主任研究員 (40431902)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Keywords熱帯気象 / 極端降水 / 将来変化 / NICAM
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study examined how intensity of extreme precipitation would change due to the anthropogenic global warming, via analysis of present climate and future climate simulations performed with a global cloud-system resolving climate model, NICAM. In particular, we focus on precipitation over tropical oceanic area to examine how projected increase rates of the extreme precipitation intensity depends on spatial and temporal scales of interest and the degree of extremeness. We found that the increase rates would decrease with increasing temporal scale for temporal scales longer than 4-6 hours, and it would increase with increasing the degree of extremeness.

Free Research Field

気象学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

地球温暖化に伴い極端降水(集中豪雨)の強さがどのように変化するのか、という問題は防災施策上からも重要な問題である。特に、短い時間スケールほど増加率が大きく予測された点は注目に値する。既往研究の多くは日降水量に焦点を当てて予測を行ってきたが、その予測を例えばゲリラ豪雨のような数時間程度の極端降水の強度について適用すると、温暖化の影響を過小評価してしまう可能性を示唆している。また、降水量を計算する際の時空間スケールの大きさにより極端降水強度の変化率がどのように異なるかを明らかにした点は、科学的にも意義深いといえる。

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Published: 2021-02-19  

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