2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Quantitative assessment of scientific knowledge on climate change and farmers' empirical knowledge through dynamic coupling of hydrologic and crop models
| Project/Area Number |
16K06503
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Hydraulic engineering
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| Research Institution | Okayama University (2017-2019)
The University of Tokyo (2016) |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Keywords | 水稲作付日 / 気候変動影響評価 / 食料生産量 / 水循環モデル / MODIS / GSMaP / AMSR2 / CMIP5 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this project, a distributed hydrological model and a crop growth model were dynamically coupled with improvements especially made on the land-surface process sub-model. The improved model was applied on a basin scale, and the impact assessment of climate change on agricultural water resources and rice production was conducted to derive the basin-scale future projection and its uncertainties (“quantitative assessment of scientific knowledge on climate change”). In addition, farmers’ empirical knowledge on agricultural management against year-to-year fluctuations in rainfall and water availability has been investigated through field surveys and remote sensing data, and its effectiveness and limitation under changing climate have been investigated. With results from these two approaches, the effective information for adaptation in agriculture under climate change has been distilled and discussed.
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| Free Research Field |
水工学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
温暖化によって気温や雨の降り方が変化しつつあることが指摘されているが，変化の程度は地域や季節によって異なり，世界各機関から公開されている将来気候の予測値には幅や差異がある．そのため，多くの情報の中から最も確からしい情報を得るとともに，その情報の確からしさの程度も把握した上で，各地域固有の適応策を講じる必要がある．一方，農業活動においては，経験的に培われた自然環境変動への適応戦略が潜在しているとみられ，科学知と経験知の双方を補完的に利用することが，気候変動適応の上で重要と考えられる．本研究は，これら科学知と経験知を定量的に評価するツールを開発し，適応策検討に際し重要な課題を抽出・提示した．
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