A behavioral economic investigation into crisis management manual as behavioral norm

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K13350
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Economic theory
• Research Institution: Hitotsubashi University
• Principal Investigator: Saito Makoto 一橋大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (10273426)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 非常時対応マニュアル / プロスペクト理論 / 現在バイアス / フレーミング / 時間的非整合性

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Based on a detailed analysis of Fukushima No.1 nuclear plant accident, which　exploits publicly available documentations of the governmental accident investigation and the video-recorded conferences among the plant, the TEPCO headquarter, and the government, this study carries out intensively behavioral economic investigations into the compilation and implementation of crisis management. One of the most important elements for crisis management manuals is to carefully distinguish "relatively severe accidents" from "severest accidents," and to deliberately prepare manuals for each of the two types. Nevertheless, the TEPCO and the regulatory body classified the two types indiscriminately in advance, and failed to properly respond to the accident, which should have been considered "relatively severe," but was declared as "severest" at the very beginning of the accident. Accordingly, the accident indeed fell into a much more severe consequence than it should have.

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学，金融理論