Development of new sediment-related disasters warning information provision system incorporating the effect of snowmelt

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K16376
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University
• Principal Investigator: KATSURA Shin'ya 北海道大学, 農学研究院, 助教 (40504220)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 土砂災害警戒情報 / 融雪

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The current provision system of the sediment-related disasters warning information, issued when risk of sediment-related disasters is increased, does not consider the effect of snowmelt. This study developed new sediment-related disasters warning information provision system incorporating the effect of snowmelt by introducing the snowmelt estimated from the precipitation and temperature into the current system. Application of the new system for past 14 snowmelt-induced sediment-related disasters revealed that the warning information is never judged to have been issued when they occurred. This is probably because (1) the estimation accuracy of the snowmelt is not adequate, and (2) the current provision system is not set up to catch occurrence of landslides, which snowmelt often induces. These points should be addressed in future.

Free Research Field

砂防学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究により、融雪に起因する土砂災害に対して土砂災害警戒情報を発表するシステムを開発することができた。このシステムの精度を向上させるためには、融雪水量の推定精度を向上させることのほか、現行の警戒情報が対象外としている地すべりを対象に含めるための方策を検討する必要があることが分かった。こうした点をクリアできれば、融雪による土砂災害の発生タイミングを事前に予測して警戒情報を発表し、適切な警戒避難につなげることで被害を防止・軽減することが可能となる。