Public health and demographic transition in modern Japan

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16K17153
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Economic history
• Research Institution: Tokyo Institute of Technology (2018); Chiba University (2016-2017)
• Principal Investigator: Ogasawara Kota 東京工業大学, 工学院, 准教授 (00733544)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 公衆衛生 / 人口変動 / 人的資本

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The mortality rate in Japan began to decrease around 1920, and it continued until after the Second World War. In particular, the proportion of deaths due to gastrointestinal diseases is known to have declined considerably, following the introduction of modern water supply systems in 1920. However, little research has been done to understand the relationship between demographic changes and modern water supply systems up until now. In this study, we quantitatively analyze the effect that modern water supply systems had on death rates in the urban areas of Japan, where they were introduced in the 1920s and 1930s. Having obtained newly constructed panel data by city from historical statistics, a statistical analysis was conducted using a valid econometric model based on historical materials. The results clarify that the prevalence of modern water supply systems decreased the risk of death, but that this treatment effect was heterogeneous, rather than fixed.

Free Research Field

経済史

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

これまで明らかにされてこなかった、19世紀初頭の日本における死亡リスクの低下要因のひとつが解明された。飲料に適した水を供給する水道設備の導入が、発展途上の経済における死亡リスクの低下に（異質性をもちながらも）貢献するという事実は、開発研究にたいしても有意義な示唆を含むものであり、社会的意義は大きい。なお、本研究を通して得られた研究業績のほとんどは、査読付き国際学術誌に論文として掲載されている。これは、本研究課題を通して得られた学術的成果が、国際的に評価されたことを意味している。