Study on comprehensive probability forecast of large earthquake

2019 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17H00727
• Research Institution: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
• Principal Investigator: 尾形 良彦 統計数理研究所, 大学共同利用機関等の部局等, 名誉教授 (70000213)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
• Keywords: 関東直下３次元地震予測モデル / リアルタイム確率予測 / ３次元デロネ分割 / 階層時空間ETASモデル / 時変（非定常）ETASモデル / Brownian Passage Timeモデル

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

１．関東地方直下100kmの深さ迄の地震データの経度・緯度・深さの座標から作成した3次元デロネ分割上の局所的線形関数をパラメータ化した階層時空間ETAS（HIST-ETAS）ベイズ型モデルを作成し、更に東北沖超巨大地震から首都圏への影響の時空間モデルを追加した一般化時空間モデルの最適解を求めた。これによる首都圏直下に於ける最近の大・中規模地震の確率予測結果が極めて良好であることを実証した。
２．常時地震活動度と余震生産性のパラメータが時間に依存する時変ETASモデルの推定法を開発した。このモデルによって群発型地震の時期や場所を抽出し表示できる。地下水圧の変化に起因する内陸直下型の地震活動や、沖合プレート境界で水が移動することに起因するスロースリップ現象を検出可能である。
３．本震直後３時間経過後からリアルタイムで余震確率予報が可能になった。最近数年間の被害地震の予測試行によれば、日本全域から決めた標準予測モデルより有効であり、時間遅れの編集データに基づく遡及的な予測結果と遜色なく機能している。最近２年間の内陸部の被害地震（６例）について、本震のマグニチュードを超える確率は数％であった。
４．殆どの内陸活断層の破壊データの発生数は僅かであり、破壊が何時頃なのかについては不確定性が避けられない。再発間隔時間が Brownian Passage Time（BPT）分布に従うと仮定して、不確かな発生時履歴に基づく将来の発生確率を予測するために統合されたベイズ的尤度を使用し、実計算にはモンテカルロ積分を使用した。これで全てのBPTパラメータ値を統合的に考慮した安定した予測を提供できた。この方法で、地震研究調査推進本部が公表した日本の主要活断層カタログに適用して、予測パフォーマンスが向上する期待度を上げた。

Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

前年度と今年度の目標課題で優先度が高い関東地方直下の地震活動モデルによる予測モデルと推定法と予測法はおおむね実用化を達成した（論文にも掲載済み）。
政府の地震調査研究推進本部（地震調査委員会）の長期予測の改善点を理論的に解明し、提案した（論文投稿準備中）。
２次元階層時空間ETASモデルの常時地震活動度と歴史被害地震や将来の内陸部直下型の大地震発生位置との対応は極めて良好で、内陸直下型地震の発生危険度マップとして提案できる。震源データが準リアルタイムで使えれば、余震生産性成分は、余震の時空間予測に有望である。
しかし本モデルはベイズ型大規模モデルであり、気象庁など世界の関係機関実務者が計算・予測を実施できるためのソフトウェアとマニュアル（英文）を完成させなければならない。これは来年度の主要課題のひとつである。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

本年度の実施計画は、目標課題の優先順位を諸環境条件で流動的に適用した。達成されていない課題でも、重要性は劣ることなく、次年度以降で継続される。

特に次年度が本プロジェクト最終年度であり、関連ソフトウェアの公表を達成する。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] 第225回地震予知連絡会重点検討課題「予測実験の試行06」の検討 (概要) リアルタイム短期予測の実施と評価について (2020)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 103 Pages: 352-355
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 多様な予測方式に対する前震識別モデルとその予測性能評価 (2020)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一, 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 103 Pages: 361-366
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 日本における余震活動のリアルタイム確率予測 (2020)
  • Author(s): 近江崇宏
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 103 Pages: 367-368
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 群発地震活動の非定常ETASモデルによる検出と測地学データに基づく予測可能性について (2020)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 103 Pages: 378-384
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 階層的時空間ETASモデルによる短期・中期予測 (2020)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 103 Pages: 385-387
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] Elastic strain energy and pore-fluid pressure control of aftershocks (2020)
  • Author(s): Terakawa Toshiko、Matsu'ura Mitsuhiro、Noda Akemi
  • Journal Title: Earth and Planetary Science Letters Volume: 535 Pages: 116103～116103
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116103
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The 3‐D Spatial Distribution of Shear Strain Energy Changes Associated With the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence, Southwest Japan (2020)
  • Author(s): Noda Akemi、Saito Tatsuhiko、Fukuyama Eiichi、Terakawa Toshiko、Tanaka Sachiko、Matsu'ura Mitsuhiro
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 47 Pages: 1-9
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019GL086369
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Model checking for hidden Markov models (2020)
  • Author(s): Buckby Jodie、Wang Ting、Zhuang Jiancang、Obara Kazushige
  • Journal Title: Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics Volume: - Pages: 1～31
  • DOI: 10.1080/10618600.2020.1743295
• [Journal Article] Characteristics of seismic activity before and after the 2018 M6.7 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): Kumazawa Takao、Ogata Yosihiko、Tsuruoka Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Earth, Planets and Space Volume: 71 Pages: 1-17
  • DOI: 10.1186/s40623-019-1102-y
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] High-resolution 3D earthquake forecasting beneath the greater Tokyo area (2019)
  • Author(s): Ogata Yosihiko、Katsura Koich、Tsuruoka Hiroshi、Hirata Naoshi
  • Journal Title: Earth, Planets and Space Volume: 71 Pages: 1-14
  • DOI: 10.1186/s40623-019-1086-7
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Modeling and Forecasting Aftershocks Can Be Improved by Incorporating Rupture Geometry in the ETAS Model (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo Yicun、Zhuang Jiancang、Ogata Yosihiko
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 46 Pages: 12881～12889
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084775
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J., Zoeller, G. and Ogata、Y..
  • Journal Title: Nature Communications Volume: 10 Pages: 1-11
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11958-4
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Implementation of a Real‐Time System for Automatic Aftershock Forecasting in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Omi Takahiro、Ogata Yosihiko、Shiomi Katsuhiko、Enescu Bogdan、Sawazaki Kaoru、Aihara Kazuyuki
  • Journal Title: Seismological Research Letters Volume: 90 Pages: 242～250
  • DOI: 10.1785/0220180213
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Physical interpretation of moment tensor and the energetics of shear faulting (2019)
  • Author(s): Matsu’ura Mitsuhiro、Noda Akemi、Terakawa Toshiko
  • Journal Title: Tectonophysics Volume: 771 Pages: 228228～228228
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2019.228228
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 統計地震学の発展と地震活動予測：個人的経験と展望 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 統計数理 Volume: 67 Pages: 215-228
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Approximate Uncertain Program (2019)
  • Author(s): Shen Xun、Zhuang Jiancang、Zhang Xingguo
  • Journal Title: IEEE Access Volume: 7 Pages: 182357～182365
  • DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2958621
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Estimation, diagnostics, and extensions of nonparametric Hawkes processes with kernel functions (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science Volume: - Pages: -
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Cluster analysis of spatial point patterns: posterior distribution of parents inferred from offspring (2019)
  • Author(s): Ogata Yosihiko
  • Journal Title: Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science Volume: - Pages: -
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Long‐Term Earthquake Hazard in North China Estimated from a Modern Catalog (2019)
  • Author(s): Xiong Ziyao、Zhuang Jiancang、Zhou Shiyong
  • Journal Title: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Volume: 109 Pages: 2340～2355
  • DOI: 10.1785/0120190066
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 首都圏直下の三次元地震活動の時空間統計モデルと詳細予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦, 桂康一, 鶴岡 弘, 平田 直
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 102 Pages: 123-129
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 北海道胆振東部地震の余震活動の特徴について (2019)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦, 鶴岡 弘
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 101 Pages: 73-77
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 2018年大阪北部及び胆振地方の地震に対するリアリタイム余震確率予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 近江崇宏, 尾形良彦, 汐見勝彦, Bogdan Enescu, 澤崎 郁, 合原一幸
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 101 Pages: 407-410
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] Seismological Investigations of Induced Earthquakes Near the Hutubi Underground Gas Storage Facility (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhou Pengcheng、Yang Hongfeng、Wang Baoshan、Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Volume: 124 Pages: 8753～8770
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019JB017360
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Estimation of near-surface density based on gravity Bayesian analysis and its application in Yunnan area (2019)
  • Author(s): Niu, Y., Guo, L., Shi, L., Chen, S. and Zhuang, J.
  • Journal Title: Chinese Journal of Geophysics Volume: 62 Pages: 2101-2114
  • DOI: 10.6038/cjg2019M0332
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Bayesian approach for network adjustment for gravity survey campaign (2020)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 固体地球データ同化に関する研究会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 地震再来間隔の変動係数の推定について (2020)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 固体地球データ同化に関する研究会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 余震活動の時空間モデリングにおける空間カーネルの改良 (2020)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹
  • Organizer: 固体地球データ同化に関する研究会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 階層的時空間ETASモデル常時地震活動と小繰り返し地震 (2020)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 研究集会「地震火山観測研究計画 繰り返し地震課題」
• [Presentation] 繰り返し地震から推定される東北地方太平洋沖地震前後を通した滑り速度推移 (2020)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 研究集会「地震火山観測研究計画 繰り返し地震課題」
• [Presentation] Spatiotemporal Evolution of Background Seismicity Rate and Stress Changes Inverted from Seismic Catalog in Changning Shalegas Hydraulic Fracturing Region, Sichuan Basin of China (2019)
  • Author(s): Jia, K.*, Zhou, S., Jiang, C. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2019 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Spatial Heterogeneity of the Aftershock Productivity of the Kumamoto Earthquake Modeled by the Finite Source ETAS model (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 2019 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A Bayesian approach to estimating the strain rate from GPS Velocity observations and application to data from Mainland Chaina (2019)
  • Author(s): Xiong, Z.*, Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S.
  • Organizer: 2019 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Toward a real-time probability forecasting system for earthquake occurrences (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: CSEP-Japan 研究集会
• [Presentation] 予測方式に応じた前震識別モデル (2019)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: CSEP-Japan 研究集会
• [Presentation] 摩擦構成則に基づく余震活動の時空間モデル (2019)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹
  • Organizer: CSEP-Japan 研究集会
• [Presentation] Modeling and forecasting aftershocks can be improved by incorporating rupture geometry in the ETAS model (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.
  • Organizer: CSEP-Japan 研究集会
• [Presentation] カリフォルニア Ridgecrest地震前後の予測と解析 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦*, 近江崇宏
  • Organizer: CSEP-Japan 研究集会
• [Presentation] 北海道胆振東部地震の詳細解析 (2019)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄*, 尾形良彦, 鶴岡 宏
  • Organizer: CSEP-Japan 研究集会
• [Presentation] 多様な予測方式に対識別モデルする前震とその予測性能評価 (2019)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一・尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 第225回 地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 群発地震活動の非定常ETASモデルによる検出と測地学データに基づく予測可能性について (2019)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄・尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 第225回 地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 階層的時空間ETASモデルによる短期・中期予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 第225回 地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 日本における余震活動のリアルタイム確率予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 近江崇宏
  • Organizer: 第225回 地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] High resolution inversions with Delaunay triangulation for effective seismicity forecast models (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 北京大学理論応用地球物理学研究所
  • Invited
• [Presentation] High resolution inversions with Delaunay triangulation for effective seismicity forecast models (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 南方科学技術大学理学院地球及び空間科学系
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 不確定な活動時期をもつ繰り返し地震群に対するベイズ推論 (2019)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一*, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 山陰地方の空間応力パターン推定：高解像度解析に向けた予備的解析 (2019)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹*, 飯尾能久
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 地震学的データを用いた応力インバージョン手法の比較, (2019)
  • Author(s): 深畑幸俊*, 岩田貴樹, 吉田圭佑
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Spatial heterogeneity of aftershock productivity on the Kumamoto earthquake rupture modeled by the finite source ETAS model (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Delaunay三角形網による高分解能地震活動モデル (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 震源カタログの時空間非均質性のベイズ的モデリングと可視化 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 剪断破壊のエネルギー論的考察に基づく余震発生の評価規準量 (2019)
  • Author(s): 松浦充宏*, 寺川寿子, 野田朱美
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 弾性歪エネルギーに基づく地震破壊規準による余震の評価 (2019)
  • Author(s): 寺川寿子*, 松浦充宏, 野田朱美
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Characteristics of seismic activity before and after the 2018 M6.7 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄*, 尾形良彦, 鶴岡 弘
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Comparison of Models of Long-term Seismic Hazard and with An Application to North China (2019)
  • Author(s): Xiong, Z.*, Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S.
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] A filtering formula for the conditional intensity of the renewal Hawkes process (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2019年度統計関連学会連合大会
• [Presentation] Clustered LassoとOSCARに対するpath algorithms (2019)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一
  • Organizer: 2019年度統計関連学会連合大会
• [Presentation] 空間点群の中心数と中心位置のMCMCシミュレーション法 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 2019年度統計関連学会連合大会
• [Presentation] SCEC CSEP Workshop on Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the Ridgecrest Sequence and CSEP2 Progress (2019)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: SCEC CSEP Workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 次回(第225回)重点検討課題「予測実験の試行06」の検討 リアルタイム短期予測の実施と評価について (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 第224回地震予知連絡会議
  • Invited
• [Presentation] A Filtering Formula for the Conditional Intensity of the Renewal Hawkes Process (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Modeling Heterogeneity and Non-stationarity of Recurrent Earthquakes, Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science (2019)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Spatial Heterogeneity of Aftershock Productivity on the Kumamoto Earthquake Rupture Modeled by the Finite Source ETAS Model (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 3D seismicity model beneath the Greater Tokyo Area (2019)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Characteristics of Seismic Activity before and after the 2018 M6.7 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): Kumazawa, T.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Flexible Modeling of Point Processes, Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science (2019)
  • Author(s): Omi, T.
  • Organizer: Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Distributions of focal mechanisms in background seismicity and earthquake clusters in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.* and Maita, E.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Satiotemporal evolution of background seismicity rate and stress changes inverted from seismic catalog in Changning region, Sichuan Basin of China (2019)
  • Author(s): Jia, K.*, Zhou, S., Jiang, C. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Operational earthquake forecast incorporating multiple geophysical data (2019)
  • Author(s): Han, P.*, Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Hattori, K.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A Bayesian approach of network adjustment for campaigned gravity survey: methodology and model test (2019)
  • Author(s): Chen, S.*, Li, H., Zhuang, J., Zhang, B. and Wang, L.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Bayesian Inference on the Magnitude of the Largest Expected Earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): Shcherbakov, R.*, Zhuang, J., Zoeller, G. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Declustering algorithms and network theory for the topological inspection of earthquake sequences (2019)
  • Author(s): Varini, E.*, Peresan, A. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Bayesian assimilation inversion of gravity anomalies and parameters optimization (2019)
  • Author(s): Li, H.*, Zhang, B., Chen, S. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Spatial Distribution of Coefficients of Variation for Recurrence Intervals of Paleoearthquakes in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Remote triggering of earthquakes as a potential stress-meter: the case of the 2016 M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Enescu, B.*, Shimojo, K., Opris, A., Yagi, Y. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] An Application of a Bayesian estimation of spatial stress pattern to San-in region, Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Iwata, T.* and Iio, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Development of the earthquake nowcasting method with application to Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Nanjo, K.Z.*, Rundle, J.B. and Sakurada, T.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Extended versions of the space-time ETAS model and application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] High resolution seismicity models using interpolation with Delaunay triangulation (2019)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Modeling, visualizing and calibrating heterogeneous hypocenter catalog (2019)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Results for real-time aftershock forecasting in Japan during recent two years (2019)
  • Author(s): Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K. and Aihara, K.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] The change in the elastic strain energy due to the 1992 Landers earthquake and triggering mechanisms of aftershock activity (2019)
  • Author(s): Terakawa, T.*, Matsu’ura, M. and Noda, A.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Anomalies in wide seismicity before the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y., Toda, S.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Long-term earthquake risk in North China estimated from a modern catalogue (2019)
  • Author(s): Xiong, Z.*, Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Distributions of focal mechanisms in background seismicity and earthquake clusters in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉*, 蒔田恵理
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Long-term earthquake risk in North China estimated from a modern catalogue (2019)
  • Author(s): 熊 子瑶, 庄 建倉*, 周 仕勇
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] CSEP Japan の結果と今後に向けて (2019)
  • Author(s): 平田 直*, 鶴岡 弘, Schorlemmer, D., 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Earthquake probability forecast incorporating non-seismic data (2019)
  • Author(s): Han, P.*, Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Hattori, K.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Increasing Earthquake Forecast Testability - CSEP Future Developments (2019)
  • Author(s): Schorlemmer, D.*, Hirata, N., Cotton, F., Gerstenberger, M., Jordan, T., Marzocchi, W., Savran, W., Werner, M., Wiemer, S., Beutin, T., Jackson, D. D., Maechling, P., Mak, S., Nanjo, K., Ogata, Y., Rhoades, D., Tsuruoka, H., Weatherill, G., and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 不確定な活動時期をもつ繰り返し地震に対する更新過程のベイズ推論と予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 野村俊一*, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] P波初動データと空間応力パターンから推定した2000年鳥取県西部地震の余震のメカニズム解 (2019)
  • Author(s): 岩田貴樹
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Extended versions of the space-time ETAS model and application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 首都圏直下の3次元高解像度地震活動予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦*, 桂 康一, 鶴岡 弘, 平田 直
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] アスペリティー破壊の地震モーメントと応力降下量，並びに歪みエネルギー解放量 (2019)
  • Author(s): 松浦充宏
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 1992年ランダース地震による弾性歪エネルギーの変化と余震の評価 (2019)
  • Author(s): 寺川寿子*, 松浦充宏, 野田朱美
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Data missing in the Chichi earthquake sequence and stochastic replenishment (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2019 Taiwan Geosciences Assembly (TGA)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Capturing the complexity of earthquake sequences by different methods (2019)
  • Author(s): Peresan, A.*, Varini, E. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Increasing Earthquake Forecast Testability - CSEP Future Developments (2019)
  • Author(s): Schorlemmer, D.*, Hirata, N., Cotton, F., Gerstenberger, M., Marzocchi, W., Werner, M., Wiemer, S., Jordan, T., Beutin, T., Jackson, D., Maechling, P., Mak, S., Nanjo, K., Ogata, Y., Rhoades, D., Strader, A., Tsuruoka, H., Weatherill, G., Zhuang, J. and Savran, W.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Use of Double Difference seismic tomography to reveal seismicity and crustal structure patterns across the Eastern Carpathians, Romania (2019)
  • Author(s): Borleanu, F.*, Petrescu, L., Enescu, B., Popa, M. and Radulian, M.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] The effect of a mainshock on the size distribution of the aftershocks (2019)
  • Author(s): Gulia, L.*, Tormann, T., Rinaldi, A.P., Vannucci., G., Enescu, B. and Wiemer, S.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Book] 点過程の時系列解析 (2019)
  • Author(s): 近江 崇宏、野村 俊一
  • Total Pages: 168
  • Publisher: 共立出版
  • ISBN: 978-4-320-11265-0
• [Remarks] Statistical Seismology Research Project
  • URL: https://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/Ssg/ssgE.html
• [Remarks] リスク解析戦略研究センター 地震予測解析プロジェクト
  • URL: https://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/Ssg/ssg.html
• [Remarks] 尾形 良彦
  • URL: https://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/JAPINDEX.html
• [Remarks] Home Page of Yosi Ogata
  • URL: https://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/index.html