Analysis of Energy Security Risk by Mathematical Programming

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17H03531
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Energy engineering
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Komiyama Ryoichi 東京大学, 大学院工学系研究科(工学部), 准教授 (60537819)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: エネルギーシステム / 数理計画法 / 最適化 / 電力系統 / リスク分析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

With the emerging risk of energy supply disruption and climate change and the expansion of variable renewable energy, strengthening countermeasures against energy security risks has become an important policy issue. In this research project, mathematical programming is employed such as stochastic dynamic programming and linear programming technique to develop an energy model that quantitatively considers risks in the energy system, and the effect of introducing risk countermeasures is analyzed.

Free Research Field

エネルギー経済分析

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

エネルギー分野の従来のリスク分析では統計指標による静的な需給構造分析が主流であるが、本研究課題は分析対象とするリスクを明示的に定量的に考慮して、各エネルギー技術の最適導入運用策やリスク対応コストを具体的に分析する点に学術的意義がある。