Sensitivity Analysis and Verification of Regional Climate Model over South-East Asia

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17H06966
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Kumamoto University
• Principal Investigator: ISHIDA KEI 熊本大学, 大学院先端科学研究部(工), 助教 (70800697)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-08-25 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 力学的ダウンスケーリング / 領域大気モデル / 感度解析 / パラメタリゼーション / 再解析データ / ナッジング

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study conducted sensitivity analysis of a regional climate model (WRF) over four study watersheds, and evaluated the simulated results in order to improve reliability of dynamical downscaling over South-East Asia. This study dealt with analysis nudging, initial conditions, sizes and resolutions of model domains, schemes of physical parameterization options of the regional climate model. The sensitivity analysis results show that initial conditions (initial date of the simulations) may not affect the downscaled results much. On the other hand, it would be important to properly select sizes and resolutions of model domains, schemes of parameterization options. Effects of nudging depend on selection of schemes of parameterization options. Furthermore, these results indicate that it will be possible to significantly improve downscaled results by properly selecting these options of a regional climate model.

Free Research Field

水工学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の成果により適切に領域大気モデルの各種設定条件を選定することにより，降水量に関し東南アジアにおいて力学的ダウンスケーリングの精度を大幅に向上できる可能性があることを示した．これにより，力学的ダウンスケーリングの信頼性向上に繋がると考えられる．また，力学的ダウンスケーリングは将来の地球温暖化の影響評価などに用いられる手法であり，本研究の成果は東南アジアにおける地球温暖化の影響評価の信頼性向上に寄与することが期待される．