Disaster prediction model for short-term volcanic explosions

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K01323
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: SUZUKI YUJIRO 東京大学, 地震研究所, 准教授 (30392939)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 小屋口 剛博 東京大学, 地震研究所, 教授 (80178384)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 火山噴火 / 数値モデル / 降灰 / サーマル / 流体力学

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In an explosive volcanic eruption, a large amount of volcanic ashes that stays in the atmosphere threaten aviation safety, and ash fall on the ground surface causes a large-scale disaster. Therefore, it is required for disaster prevention to quickly predict the expansion speed of volcanic ash in the atmosphere and the timing of ash fall with a high accuracy. We have developed a 3D numerical model of eruption cloud and carried out numerical simulations. As a result, the relationship between the eruption conditions and the plume height was estimated. In addition, we reproduced the ascending and horizontal expansion of the eruption clouds in Aso-Nakadake 2021 and Tonga 2022 eruptions.

Free Research Field

火山物理学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

活動的火山が多く存在する日本において、爆発的火山噴火の災害予測を高精度で行うことが求められる。そのためには、より現実的な数値モデルを構築し、数値シミュレーションによって過去の噴火事例の再現や将来起こりうる噴煙災害の予測をすることは重要である。本成果は、火山災害予測の高精度化に向けての準備に大きな貢献をした。