Empirical analysis on unconventional monetary policy and discretionary fiscal policy after the global financial crisis

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K03697
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic policy
• Research Institution: Osaka City University
• Principal Investigator: Kubo Akihiro 大阪市立大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (90554882)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: 外国為替介入 / マクロ経済政策

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study aimed to explore empirically the impact of unconventional monetary policy and discretionary fiscal policy emerging market countries after the global financial crisis, in 2008-9. As one of the unconventional monetary policy, I insert the equation of the foreign exchange reserve behavior in the model to examine the degree of monetary authority’s “fear of floating.” The results showed that all sampled monetary authorities adopted a de facto managed floating exchange rate regime. While, I found the lack of robustness in the empirical results of the effect of discretionary fiscal policy.

Free Research Field

国際マクロ経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

金融危機発生後のマクロ経済構造について、外国為替介入を導入することでモデル化できたことは同分野における貢献と言える。しかしながら、財政政策を分析モデルに組み込む際の定式化は既存研究では頑健性が担保できないことも明確となった。また、今後の主に財政政策の出口戦略について、当該サンプルのデータを入手できるタイミングでの再検証が望ましいため、今後の課題として研究継続を行うべきと考えられる。