Response of circumboreal forest to climate change: tree-ring, satellite images and modeling approaches

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K12810
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Environmental dynamic analysis
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University
• Principal Investigator: Tei Shunsuke 北海道大学, 北極域研究センター, 博士研究員 (40710661)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 樹木年輪 / 地球衛星観測 / 全球気候モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We investigated tree-ring and satellite observation based estimates for circumboreal forest response to climate changes under the same analysis condition. These estimates were then used as validation data of ecosystem carbon uptake in global climate models. The significant negative effect of warming on tree radial growth, which has been well reported in previous tree-ring studies, has been observed by satellite observation based estimate as well. Our results indicate that current global climate models could not reproduce the negative effect and tended to show an overly positive response to both past temperature and precipitation changes.

Free Research Field

環境学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では、周北極域における樹木年輪および衛星植生指数変動と過去の気候変動との対応関係を同一解析条件下で求めた。このような基礎的データの提供は、これまでほとんど地球温暖化に関する政府間パネル(IPCC)の評価報告書に取り上げられてこなかった樹木年輪生態学的研究および衛星観測データ（植生指数）研究の価値の再構築につながり、広い分野に波及効果をもたらすと考えられる。また、本成果は、全球気候モデルの生態系炭素収支過程の高度化に資することが可能である。その高度化が達成されれば、全球気候モデルの将来予測の不確実性の減少を通して全球の気候変動予測に大きな影響を与える。