2018 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Frozen Conflicts: the Impact of Internationally Unrecognized States on Post-conflict Recovery
| Project/Area Number |
17K13730
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| Research Institution | Osaka University |
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Principal Investigator |
下松 真之 大阪大学, 国際公共政策研究科, 講師 (40791843)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Keywords | 未承認国家 / 旧ソ連 / 衛星データ / 内戦の影響 / 経済成長 |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
We estimate how many percentages real GDP goes up by if nighttime light intensity increases by 1%, from the annual data for 177 countries for 1992-2013. This number allows us to recover the unobserved real GDP growth rates from the observed nighttime light intensity in unrecognized states.
The estimated real GDP growth rates in unrecognized states are not consistently larger or smaller than the ones in their parent states, suggesting that the economic impact of non-recognition as sovereign states is limited.
We have changed the research methodology because the exact data on the border of unrecognized states turns out to be extremely difficult to obtain, which prevents us from conducting spatial regression discontinuity design as initially proposed.
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