Development of methods for trends analysis of cancer incidence and mortality with varying coefficient model

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 17K15842
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Epidemiology and preventive medicine
• Research Institution: Osaka Medical College (2018-2019); Osaka International Cancer Institute (2017)
• Principal Investigator: Fukui Keisuke 大阪医科大学, 研究支援センター, 助教 (50760922)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: がん / 変化係数モデル / ポアソン回帰

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Projecting cancer mortality is fundamental to the process of planning cancer control.　In this study, we focus on the varying coefficient model for analyzing the longitudinal trend of cancer incidence and mortality in order to generalize the structure of time-varying factors and introducing non-time-varying factors such as regional characteristics and socioeconomic disparities.

Free Research Field

統計科学, がん疫学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

がんの経時変動要因の分析はがん対策の評価・立案において重要である. 本研究ではがんの経時変動要因分析の手法の一つである変化係数モデルを用いた方法について, 経時変動要因以外の要因の導入可能性の検討や, 統計的推定手法の開発を行った. 本研究成果による変化係数モデルが実際に適用された場合には, 我が国のがん対策へ有用な情報の提供が可能になると考えられる.