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2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Development of composite short-middle term earthquake forecast models based on past seismic activity

Research Project

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Project/Area Number 17K17722
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Statistical science
Solid earth and planetary physics
Research InstitutionThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Principal Investigator

Nomura Shunichi  統計数理研究所, モデリング研究系, 助教 (70719640)

Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Keywords地震予測 / 繰り返し地震 / プレートテクトニクス / 前震活動 / 更新過程 / 非定常点過程 / ベイズ型予測 / ロジスティック回帰
Outline of Final Research Achievements

We proposed a stochastic method to improve errors in inference and prediction for long-term evaluation of inland main active faults in Japan.
We estimated spatiotemporal variation of interplate slip rate from small repeating earthquakes in the subduction zone of Pacific plate and visualized characteristic slips before and after major earthquakes.
We developed a statistical model to evaluate the probability that a seismic cluster is a foreshock cluster of a large earthquake from its features and proved its stable predictive performance.

Free Research Field

統計地震学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

地震調査研究推進本部が現在公表している内陸主要活断層の長期評価に関して,将来の地震発生確率の評価における問題点を明らかにし,さらにその改善策を提案した点に社会的意義がある.
また,地震活動の時空間的集中度とマグニチュード差の情報から,それが大地震の前震活動である確率をリアルタイムに評価することができるため,大地震の起こる可能性がある程度高いときに事前の注意喚起が実現できる可能性がある.

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Published: 2021-02-19  

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