2007 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Mathematical modeling to protect emerging Flu
| Project/Area Number |
18540138
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
General mathematics (including Probability theory/Statistical mathematics)
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| Research Institution | Josai University |
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Principal Investigator |
YASUDA Hidenori Josai University, Department of Mathematics, Professor (30406368)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
SUZUKI Kazuo Chiba University, Department of Medicine, Professor (20192130)
YAMAMOTO Kenji International Medical Center Japan, Research institute, International Clinical Research Center, Director General (80192798)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2006 – 2007
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| Keywords | Transmission of disease / Simulation / Influenza / School closure / Prohibition of traffic / Vaccination / Commuters |
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| Research Abstract |
In Greater Tokyo, many people commute by railroad between suburbs and downtowns for 1 or 2 h per day. The spread of influenza in the suburbs of Tokyo should be studied including the roll of commuters. We analyzed the spread of simulated influenza in commuter towns along a suburban railroad, using the individual-based Monte Carlo method and validated using the surveillance. This simulation reflected the mechanism of the real spread of influenza in the commuter towns. Three measures against the spread of influenza, prohibition of traffic, school closure, and vaccination of children were analyzed. Prohibition of traffic was not effective after the introduction of influenza into the commuter towns, but early implementation has some effect of delay of the epidemics. School closure delayed the epidemics, but its decrease in the infected population was small. Vaccination of children decreased the numbers not only of infected children but also of infected adults in the regional communities.
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Research Products
(8 results)
