The Quasi-biennial Oscillation and Gravity Wave Modulation by the El Nino Southern Oscillation

2019 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18H01286
• Research Institution: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
• Principal Investigator: 河谷 芳雄 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球環境部門(環境変動予測研究センター), 主任研究員 (00392960)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 藤原 正智 北海道大学, 地球環境科学研究院, 准教授 (00360941) ; 高薮 縁 東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 教授 (10197212) ; 渡辺 真吾 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球環境部門(環境変動予測研究センター), センター長代理 (50371745)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 赤道準2年振動 / エルニーニョ・南方振動

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

気候モデルデータと各種観測データ・再解析データを組み合わせ、エルニーニョ・南方振動（ENSO）に伴う対流圏・成層圏循環、熱帯対流、重力波活動の変動が、どのようなプロセスを経てQBO変調を引き起こすかを詳細に調べ、ENSOに伴う赤道準2年振動（QBO）変調のメカニズムを解明した。更に重力波ソースを一様にする既存のパラメタリゼーションではENSOによるQBO変調は再現されないことを示し、仮定されている重力波の物理過程の問題点を示した。さらに高解像度衛星観測データに瞬間的な時空間スペクトルを計算可能とするウェーブレット解析を適用し、ラニーニャ時に比べてエルニーニョ時には位相速度の遅い対流雲活動が活発であることを示した（Kawatani et al. 2019）。
国際的な全球大気再解析比較プロジェクト(S-RIP)に主導的立場で参加し、最終報告書の原稿を書き上げた。QBOを駆動する各種赤道波の再現性について詳しく調べた（Kim et al. 2019）。また、大規模火山噴火に伴う地表気温の応答を比較調査した（Fujiwara et al., 2020）。
亜熱帯から中緯度に水蒸気を運ぶ細くて長い水蒸気の帯は、Atmospheric River（AR）と呼ばれ、対流圏界面レベルのジェットや温帯低気圧の循環のような大規模な流れと、熱帯域の豊富な水蒸気源によって形成される。1989-2018年の30年間の客観解析データ（JRA55およびERA5）を利用してARを抽出し、ENSOのフェーズに伴うARの変動について調査した。その結果、北半球の夏季、冬季ともにエルニーニョ時は太平洋中部のARカバー率が比較的小さく、ラニーニャでは大きいことがわかった。さらにこの違いは、亜熱帯ジェットの蛇行度と熱帯域の可降水量分布の相乗効果で現れることを示した。

Current Status of Research Progress

1: Research has progressed more than it was originally planned.

Reason

昨年度までに行ったモデル実験データの詳細解析、および各種観測データの解析が滞りなく行われ、成果を複数の論文として出版することができた。当初の計画以上に進展していると言える。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

交付申請書に沿って、引き続きENSOに伴う赤道準2年振動の変調メカニズムを解明する為の詳細な解析を行う。世界の他機関モデル実験データにも着手し、順次論文化していく。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] ハワイ大学/NorthWest Research Associates/NASA(米国)
  • Country Name: U.S.A.
  • Counterpart Institution: ハワイ大学/NorthWest Research Associates/NASA
  • # of Other Institutions: 2
• [Int'l Joint Research] オックスフォード大学/イギリス国立大気科学センター(英国)
  • Country Name: UNITED KINGDOM
  • Counterpart Institution: オックスフォード大学/イギリス国立大気科学センター
• [Int'l Joint Research] カナダ気象センター(カナダ)
  • Country Name: CANADA
  • Counterpart Institution: カナダ気象センター
• [Journal Article] The equatorial stratospheric semiannual oscillation and time-mean winds in QBOi models (2020)
  • Author(s): A.K. Smith, L.A. Holt, R.R. Garcia, J.A. Anstey, F. Serva, N. Butchart, S.M. Osprey, A.C. Bushell, Y. Kawatani, Y-H. Kim, F. Lott, P. Braesicke, C. Cagnazzo, C.-C. Chen, H.-Y. Chun, L. Gray, T. Kerzenmacher, H. Naoe, J. Richter, S. Versick, V. Schenzinger, S. Watanabe, K. Yoshida
  • Journal Title: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Volume: - Pages: 1-17
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.3690
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 地球温暖化で成層圏大気の流れが変化 (2020)
  • Author(s): 河谷芳雄
  • Journal Title: Japan Geoscience Letters Volume: 16 Pages: 9-11
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Response of the quasi-biennial oscillation to a warming climate in global climate models (2020)
  • Author(s): Richter, J. H., N. Butchart, Y. Kawatani, A. C. Bushell, L. Holt, F. Serva, J. Anstey, I. R. Simpson, S. M. Osprey, K. Hamilton, P. Braesicke, C. Cagnazzo, C.-C. Chen, R. R. Garcia, L. J. Gray, T. Kerzenmacher, F. Lott, S. Watanabe, et al.
  • Journal Title: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Volume: - Pages: 1-29
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.3749
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] QBO changes in CMIP6 climate projections (2020)
  • Author(s): Butchart Neal, Anstey James, Kawatani Yoshio, Osprey Scott, Richter Yadwiga, Wu Tongwen
  • Journal Title: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Volume: - Pages: -
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019GL086903
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Evaluation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in global climate models for the SPARC QBO-initiative (2020)
  • Author(s): Bushell AC, Anstey JA, Butchart N, Kawatani Y, Osprey SM, Richter JH, Serva F, Braesicke P, Cagnazzo C, Chen C-C, Chun H-Y, Garcia RR, Gray LJ, Hamilton K, Kerzenmacher T, Kim Y-H, Lott F, McLandress C, Naoe H, Scinocca J, Smith AK, Stockdale TN, Versick S,Watanabe S, Yoshida K, Yukimoto S
  • Journal Title: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Volume: - Pages: 1-31
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3765
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Progress in simulating the Quasi-biennial Oscillation in CMIP models (2020)
  • Author(s): Richter Yadwiga, Anstey James, Butchart Neal, Yoshio Kawatani, Gerald A. Meehl, Scott Osprey, Isla R. Simpson
  • Journal Title: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH - Atmospheres Volume: - Pages: -
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019JD032362
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Representation of the Equatorial Stratopause Semiannual Oscillation in Global Atmospheric Reanalyses (2020)
  • Author(s): Kawatani, Y., T. Hirooka, K. Hamilton, A. K. Smith and M. Fujiwara
  • Journal Title: ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS DISCUSSION Volume: - Pages: -
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-73
  • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Surface temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets (2020)
  • Author(s): Fujiwara Masatomo、Martineau Patrick、Wright Jonathon S.
  • Journal Title: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Volume: 20 Pages: 345～374
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-345-2020
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] ENSO modulation of the QBO: Results from MIROC models with and without non-orographic gravity wave parameterization (2019)
  • Author(s): Kawatani, Y., K. Hamilton, K. Sato, T. J. Dunkerton, S. Watanabe and K. Kikuchi
  • Journal Title: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume: 76 Pages: 3893-3917
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0163.1
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Comparison of equatorial wave activity in the tropical tropopause layer and stratosphere represented in reanalyses (2019)
  • Author(s): Young-Ha Kim, George Kiladis, John Albers, Juliana Dias, Masatomo Fujiwara, James Anstey, In-Sun Song, Corwin Wright, Yoshio Kawatani, Francois Lott, Changhyun Yoo
  • Journal Title: ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS Volume: 19 Pages: 10027-10050
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-10027-2019
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6 (2019)
  • Author(s): Tatebe, H., Ogura, T., Nitta, T., Komuro, Y., Ogochi, K., Takemura, T., Sudo, K., Sekiguchi, M., Abe, M., Saito, F., Chikira, M., Watanabe, S., Mori, M., Hirota, N., Kawatani, Y., Mochizuki, T., Yoshimura, K., Takata, K., O'ishi, R., Yamazaki, D., Suzuki, T., Kurogi, M., Kataoka, T., Watanabe, M., and Kimoto, M.
  • Journal Title: Geoscientific Model Development Volume: 12 Pages: 2727-2765
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Presentation] Representation of the Semiannual Oscillation in Global Atmospheric Reanalyses (2020)
  • Author(s): Yoshio Kawatani, Hirooka Toshihiko, Hamilton Kevin, Smith Anne, Masatomo Fujiwara
  • Organizer: WCRP/SPARC SATIO-TCS joint workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Representation of the Equatorial Stratopause Semiannual Oscillation in Global Atmospheric Reanalyses (2020)
  • Author(s): Yoshio Kawatani, Toshihiko Hirooka, Hamilton Kevin, Smith Anne K., Fujiwara Masatomo
  • Organizer: 2019年度PANSY研究集会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] ENSO modulation of the QBO: Results from MIROC models with and without non-orographic gravity wave parameterization (2020)
  • Author(s): Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Kaoru Sato, Timothy J. Dunkerton, Shingo Watanabe, Kazuyoshi Kikuchi
  • Organizer: WCRP/SPARC SATIO-TCS joint workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] The Effects of a Well-Resolved Stratosphere on the Simulated Boreal Winter Circulation in a Climate Model (2019)
  • Author(s): Yoshio Kawatani, Hamilton Kevin, Gray Lesley J., Osprey Scott M., Shingo Watanabe, Yosuke Yamashita
  • Organizer: 27th International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] The effects of a well-resolved stratosphere on the simulated boreal winter circulation in a climate model (2019)
  • Author(s): Yoshio Kawatani, Hamilton Kevin, Gray Lesley J., Ospery Scott M., Shingo Watanabe, Yosuke Yamashita
  • Organizer: RCAST special symposium on climate science with Prof. Hoskins
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 気候モデルを用いた成層圏・中間圏が対流圏循環場に及ぼす影響の考察 (2019)
  • Author(s): Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, Shingo Watanabe, Yosuke Yamashita
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2019年度春季大会
• [Presentation] The Effects of a Well-Resolved Stratosphere on the Simulated Boreal Winter Circulation in a Climate Model (2019)
  • Author(s): Yoshio Kawatani, Hamilton Kevin, Gray Lesley J., Osprey Scott M., Shingo Watanabe, Yosuke Yamashita
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
• [Presentation] Hindcasts of the 2016 Disruption of the Stratospheric QBO (2019)
  • Author(s): Shingo Watanabe, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Yoshio Kawatani, Eriko Nishimoto
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
• [Presentation] Hindcasts of the 2016 Disruption of the Stratospheric Quasi-biennial Oscillation (2019)
  • Author(s): Shingo Watanabe, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Yoshio Kawatani
  • Organizer: DynVarMIP workshop on Atmospheric circulation in a changing climate
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 2015/2016年に生じた赤道成層圏準二年周期振動（QBO）崩壊イベント発生時の大気波動の振る舞いに ついて (2019)
  • Author(s): Shingo Watanabe, Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 太平洋地域のAtmospheric Riverと対流圏上層ジェットの蛇行との関係 (2019)
  • Author(s): 金子航、高薮縁、辻宏樹
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] The Effect of Upper-tropospheric Jet for Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in Pacific Region (2019)
  • Author(s): W. KANEKO and Y. N. TAKAYABU
  • Organizer: 2019 University Allied Workshop on Climate and Extreme Weather, Chiba, Japan
• [Remarks] Masatomo Fujiwara
  • URL: http://wwwoa.ees.hokudai.ac.jp/~fuji/index_jp.html
• [Remarks] Yoshio Kawatani
  • URL: https://sites.google.com/site/yoshiokawatani/home
• [Remarks] 高薮研究室
  • URL: http://ccsr.aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~takayabu/index-j.html