Development of a stochastic shoreline change model considering changes in sediment supply from rivers to the coast due to climate change

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18H01538
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
• Research Institution: Tohoku University
• Principal Investigator: Udo Keiko 東北大学, 災害科学国際研究所, 准教授 (80371780)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 竹林 洋史 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (70325249) ; 峠 嘉哉 東北大学, 工学研究科, 助教 (90761536)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 土砂収支 / 汀線変化 / 土砂生産 / Cross-shoreモデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Sandy beaches are deformed under the influence of changes in sediment supply from mountainous areas, through rivers, to the coast, in addition to coastal and offshore drift and blown sand parallel and perpendicular to the coastline. In particular, the sediment supply from rivers is known to have a significant impact on coastal sediment transport. For effective coastal management to adapt future climate change, it is essential to integrate these models and develop a long-term shoreline change model considering the sediment supply. In this study, each of these sediment dynamics models was constructed and incorporated into a shoreline change model to develop a future long-term prediction model capable of estimating shoreline, berm, and dune locations.

Free Research Field

海岸工学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

砂浜は，豊かな生態系を育み，レクリエーションの場を提供すると同時に，災害時には内陸部への水の侵入を抑制する減災機能を有する貴重な空間である．一方で，将来は気候変動による波浪特性変化や海面上昇等が予測されており，沿岸域に人口と資産が集積する我が国をはじめ世界の低平地で，海岸侵食に伴う高波や高潮等の沿岸災害の増大により重大な影響が生じると考えられる（IPCC，2013）．現時点でも既にその兆候は顕在化しており，生態系や人間社会への影響が大きい砂浜侵食の長期予測技術を開発することはその適切な管理を行う上で重要な役割を果たす．