2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Detection and attribution of flood changes using Earth observation big data and large ensemble climate experiments
| Project/Area Number |
18H01540
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
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| Research Institution | Shibaura Institute of Technology |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
鼎 信次郎 東京工業大学, 環境・社会理工学院, 教授 (20313108)
山崎 大 東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 准教授 (70736040)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Keywords | 地球温暖化 / 洪水 / 衛星画像ビッグデータ |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Event attribution experiments utilizing a long-term riverflow reanalysis, satellite imagery big data, and large-scale ensemble climate experiments was conducted to examine the contribution of human-induced climate change to past flood changes. The results indicated that the frequency of flooding has increased in Asia and South America due to an increase in heavy rainfall caused by human-induced climate change, and that this trend has been particularly pronounced in the past several decades. We also found that the frequency of some snowmelt floods in early spring has been decreasing due to the decrease in snowfall caused by past temperature increases. The results obtained in this study were not only published as peer-reviewed papers, but were also cited in the Working Group II of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report published at the end of February 2022, contributing significantly to the expansion of scientific knowledge in this field.
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| Free Research Field |
水工学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
世界で初めて多数の洪水に対するイベントアトリビューション実験を行い、過去の洪水の発生確率の変化に人為起源の温暖化が影響している証拠を示すことに成功した。長期河川流量再解析や衛星画像ビッグデータによる過去の洪水変化の検知手法も新たに提案し、温暖化の寄与の地理的分布や過去の洪水の発生が近年に多いことも示すなど関連分野への学術的な貢献が大きい。また、最新のIPCC報告書に引用されるなどこの分野の科学的知見の拡充に大きく貢献した。本研究は長期観測が不足している河川洪水に対して、温暖化による洪水変化の情報を提供することに成功しており、これらの地域の今後の洪水に関する適応策に重要な示唆を与えている。
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