Evaluation for severe weather disaster potential using the PV-based TC/ETC bogussing scheme

2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18H01542
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
• Research Institution: Gifu University
• Principal Investigator: Yoshino Jun 岐阜大学, 工学部, 准教授 (70377688)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
• Keywords: 自然災害 / 水工水理学 / 気象学 / 防災 / 高潮

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Concerns have been raised about the possibility that typhoons and extratropical cyclones may become more powerful as a consequence of global warming. In Japan, it is necessary to revise mid- to long-term disaster mitigation measures based on appropriate scenarios of the worst typhoons and extratropical cyclones, taking into account the effects of global warming. In this study, we develop the “evaluation system for severe weather disaster potential” based on atmospheric and oceanic dynamic methods, which does not rely on empirical or statistical methods, and conduct track ensemble experiments for typhoons and bomb cyclones against the present and future climates. This proposed system successfully evaluates the maximum possible external forces for storm surge, strong winds, and precipitation in Japan, taking into account global warming and track uncertainty.

Free Research Field

水工水理学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究により，温暖化や進路の不確実さを考慮に入れた大雨，高潮，強風などの災害ハザードマップを整備することが可能となった．ハードとソフトの両面からの中・長期的な防災減災対策を講じる上で本研究の成果が大きく貢献できると期待される．また，本研究の知見により，従来のような既往事例に基づいた想定を行うことで，常識とは異なる思いもよらぬ“想定外”の誤差に繋がる可能性があることは明らかとなった．将来気候下の気象災害を軽減するためにも，温暖化の進行状況を見極めつつ，最新の科学的知見に基づいて定期的に高潮ハザードマップを更新してゆく必要があるだろう．