Evaluation of climate effects of black carbon over the Arctic with an advanced earth system model

2021 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18H03363
• Research Institution: Japan, Meteorological Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: 大島 長 気象庁気象研究所, 全球大気海洋研究部, 主任研究官 (50590064)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 庭野 匡思 気象庁気象研究所, 気象予報研究部, 主任研究官 (10515026) ; 青木 輝夫 国立極地研究所, 国際北極環境研究センター, 特任教授 (30354492)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: エアロゾル / 黒色炭素粒子 / 気候変動 / 環境変動 / 北極 / 気候モデル / 雪氷 / 大気化学

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

気象研究所地球システムモデル（MRI-ESM2）に導入されている積雪変質モデル（SMAP）の高度化を実施し、観測データが充実する札幌において、積雪中の黒色炭素濃度の季節変化等の再現性を検証した。また、グリーンランドで掘削したアイスコアから過去350年間の積雪中の黒色炭素によって起こりうるアルベド低下量を推定したところ、グリーンランド氷床上の積雪に含まれる黒色炭素は、通常アルベド変化に大きな影響を与えないが、夏季の低標高域で積雪粒径成長時に黒色炭素の高濃度イベントが発生した場合には無視できない影響があることが分かった。
MRI-ESM2による産業革命前（1850年）から現在（2014年）までの歴史実験計算とアイスコア観測等との比較を行い、モデルでのエアロゾルの再現性を検証した。MRI-ESM2は、北極域で観測された20世紀前半（1940年頃）の地上気温上昇と20世紀後半（1970年頃）の地上気温低下を再現するとともに、自然強制と内部変動が1940年頃の温暖化、人為起源エアロゾルの増大と内部変動が1970年頃の寒冷化の主要因であることを明らかとした。第6期結合モデル相互比較計画（CMIP6）を構成する、エアロゾルおよび大気化学に関するモデル相互比較計画（AerChemMIP）や気候変動の検出と要因分析に関するモデル相互比較計画（DAMIP）に参画し、MRI-ESM2による多数の計算を実施し、これらのモデル計算データを公開するとともに、これらの研究成果は複数の査読付き論文として出版された。またCMIP6の枠組みで，国際研究チームによるモデル相互比較計画が立ち上がり、新型コロナウイルス感染症（COVID-19）の流行に伴う世界各地でのロックダウン等により、人為起源物質の排出量は世界的に減少したが，地上気温や降水量への有意な影響は検出できないことを明らかとした。

Research Progress Status

令和3年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

令和3年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] 英国気象庁ハドレーセンター(英国)
  • Country Name: UNITED KINGDOM
  • Counterpart Institution: 英国気象庁ハドレーセンター
• [Int'l Joint Research] カナダ環境・気候変動省(カナダ)
  • Country Name: CANADA
  • Counterpart Institution: カナダ環境・気候変動省
• [Int'l Joint Research] グリーンランド地質調査所(デンマーク)
  • Country Name: DENMARK
  • Counterpart Institution: グリーンランド地質調査所
• [Int'l Joint Research] フィンランド気象研究所(フィンランド)
  • Country Name: FINLAND
  • Counterpart Institution: フィンランド気象研究所
• [Journal Article] Fine Ash‐Bearing Particles as a Major Aerosol Component in Biomass Burning Smoke (2022)
  • Author(s): Adachi Kouji、Dibb Jack E.、Scheuer Eric、Katich Joseph M.、Schwarz Joshua P.、Perring Anne E.、Mediavilla Braden、Guo Hongyu、Campuzano‐Jost Pedro、Jimenez Jose L.、Crawford James、Soja Amber J.、Oshima Naga、Kajino Mizuo、Kinase Takeshi、Kleinman Lawrence、Sedlacek Arthur J.、Yokelson Robert J.、Buseck Peter R.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Volume: 127 Pages: e2021JD035657
  • DOI: 10.1029/2021JD035657
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models (2022)
  • Author(s): Zanis Prodromos、Akritidis Dimitris、Turnock Steven、Naik Vaishali、Szopa Sophie、Georgoulias Aristeidis K、Bauer Susanne E、Deushi Makoto、Horowitz Larry W、Keeble James、Le Sager Philippe、O’Connor Fiona M、Oshima Naga、Tsigaridis Konstantinos、van Noije Twan
  • Journal Title: Environmental Research Letters Volume: 17 Pages: 024014～024014
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing and Multidecadal Internal Variability to Mid‐20th Century Arctic Cooling‐CMIP6/DAMIP Multimodel Analysis (2022)
  • Author(s): Aizawa Takuro、Oshima Naga、Yukimoto Seiji
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 49 Pages: e2021GL097093
  • DOI: 10.1029/2021GL097093
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Changes in anthropogenic precursor emissions drive shifts in the ozone seasonal cycle throughout the northern midlatitude troposphere (2022)
  • Author(s): Bowman Henry、Turnock Steven、Bauer Susanne E.、Tsigaridis Kostas、Deushi Makoto、Oshima Naga、O'Connor Fiona M.、Horowitz Larry、Wu Tongwen、Zhang Jie、Kubistin Dagmar、Parrish David D.
  • Journal Title: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Volume: 22 Pages: 3507～3524
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The Determination of the Snow Optical Grain Diameter and Snowmelt Area on the Greenland Ice Sheet Using Spaceborne Optical Observations (2022)
  • Author(s): Vandecrux Baptiste、Box Jason E.、Wehrle Adrien、Kokhanovsky Alexander A.、Picard Ghislain、Niwano Masashi、Horhold Maria、Faber Anne-Katrine、Steen-Larsen Hans Christian
  • Journal Title: Remote Sensing Volume: 14 Pages: 932～932
  • DOI: 10.3390/rs14040932
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The determination of snow parameters using SGLI/GCOM-C spaceborne top-of-atmosphere spectral reflectance measurements over Antarctica (2022)
  • Author(s): Kokhanovsky A.、Shimada R.、Aoki T.、Hori M.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer Volume: in press Pages: 108226～108226
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jqsrt.2022.108226
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Arctic Warming and Associated Sea Ice Reduction in the Early 20th Century Induced by Natural Forcings in MRI‐ESM2.0 Climate Simulations and Multimodel Analyses (2021)
  • Author(s): Aizawa Takuro、Ishii Masayoshi、Oshima Naga、Yukimoto Seiji、Hasumi Hiroyasu
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 48 Pages: e2020GL092336
  • DOI: 10.1029/2020GL092336
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP (2021)
  • Author(s): Jones Chris D.、Hickman Jonathan E.、Rumbold Steven T.、Walton Jeremy、Lamboll Robin D.、Skeie Ragnhild B.、Fiedler Stephanie、Forster Piers M.、Rogelj Joeri、Abe Manabu、Botzet Michael、Calvin Katherine、Cassou Christophe、Cole Jason N.S.、Davini Paolo、Deushi Makoto、（略）、Oshima Naga、et al.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 48 Pages: e2020GL091883
  • DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091883
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Comparison of three aerosol representations of NHM-Chem (v1.0) for the simulations of air quality and climate-relevant variables (2021)
  • Author(s): Kajino Mizuo、Deushi Makoto、Sekiyama Tsuyoshi Thomas、Oshima Naga、Yumimoto Keiya、Tanaka Taichu Yasumichi、Ching Joseph、Hashimoto Akihiro、Yamamoto Tetsuya、Ikegami Masaaki、Kamada Akane、Miyashita Makoto、Inomata Yayoi、Shima Shin-ichiro、Khatri Pradeep、Shimizu Atsushi、Irie Hitoshi、Adachi Kouji、et al.
  • Journal Title: Geoscientific Model Development Volume: 14 Pages: 2235～2264
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-2235-2021
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Isotopic evidence for acidity-driven enhancement of sulfate formation after SO2 emission control (2021)
  • Author(s): Hattori Shohei、Iizuka Yoshinori、Alexander Becky、Ishino Sakiko、Fujita Koji、Zhai Shuting、Sherwen Tomas、Oshima Naga、Uemura Ryu、Yamada Akinori、Suzuki Nozomi、Matoba Sumito、Tsuruta Asuka、Savarino Joel、Yoshida Naohiro
  • Journal Title: Science Advances Volume: 7 Pages: eabd4610
  • DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abd4610
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Seasonal Variation of Wet Deposition of Black Carbon at Ny‐Alesund, Svalbard (2021)
  • Author(s): Mori Tatsuhiro、Kondo Yutaka、Ohata Sho、Goto‐Azuma Kumiko、Fukuda Kaori、Ogawa‐Tsukagawa Yoshimi、Moteki Nobuhiro、Yoshida Atsushi、Koike Makoto、Sinha P. R.、Oshima Naga、Matsui Hitoshi、Tobo Yutaka、Yabuki Masanori、Aas Wenche
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Volume: 126 Pages: e2020JD034110
  • DOI: 10.1029/2020JD034110
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Investigations on the anthropogenic reversal of the natural ozone gradient between northern and southern midlatitudes (2021)
  • Author(s): Parrish David D.、Derwent Richard G.、Turnock Steven T.、O'Connor Fiona M.、Staehelin Johannes、Bauer Susanne E.、Deushi Makoto、Oshima Naga、Tsigaridis Kostas、Wu Tongwen、Zhang Jie
  • Journal Title: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Volume: 21 Pages: 9669～9679
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Estimates of mass absorption cross sections of black carbon for filter-based absorption photometers in the Arctic (2021)
  • Author(s): Ohata Sho、Mori Tatsuhiro、Kondo Yutaka、Sharma Sangeeta、Hyvarinen Antti、Andrews Elisabeth、Tunved Peter、Asmi Eija、Backman John、Servomaa Henri、Veber Daniel、Eleftheriadis Konstantinos、Vratolis Stergios、Krejci Radovan、Zieger Paul、Koike Makoto、Kanaya Yugo、Yoshida Atsushi、Moteki Nobuhiro、（略）、Oshima Naga
  • Journal Title: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Volume: 14 Pages: 6723～6748
  • DOI: 10.5194/amt-14-6723-2021
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Arctic black carbon during PAMARCMiP 2018 and previous aircraft experiments in spring (2021)
  • Author(s): Ohata Sho、Koike Makoto、Yoshida Atsushi、Moteki Nobuhiro、Adachi Kouji、Oshima Naga、Matsui Hitoshi、Eppers Oliver、Bozem Heiko、Zanatta Marco、Herber Andreas B.
  • Journal Title: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Volume: 21 Pages: 15861～15881
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-15861-2021
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Rainfall on the Greenland Ice Sheet: Present‐Day Climatology From a High‐Resolution Non‐Hydrostatic Polar Regional Climate Model (2021)
  • Author(s): Niwano M.、Box J. E.、Wehrle A.、Vandecrux B.、Colgan W. T.、Cappelen J.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 48 Pages: e2021GL092942
  • DOI: 10.1029/2021GL092942
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Spectral degree of linear polarization and neutral points of polarization in snow and ice surfaces (2021)
  • Author(s): Tanikawa Tomonori、Masuda Kazuhiko、Ishimoto Hiroshi、Aoki Teruo、Hori Masahiro、Niwano Masashi、Hachikubo Akihiro、Matoba Sumito、Sugiura Konosuke、Toyota Takenobu、Ohkawara Nozomu、Stamnes Knut
  • Journal Title: Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer Volume: 273 Pages: 107845～107845
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jqsrt.2021.107845
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Quantifying Relative Contributions of Light‐Absorbing Particles From Domestic and Foreign Sources on Snow Melt at Sapporo, Japan During the 2011-2012 Winter (2021)
  • Author(s): Niwano M.、Kajino M.、Kajikawa T.、Aoki T.、Kodama Y.、Tanikawa T.、Matoba S.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 48 Pages: e2021GL093940
  • DOI: 10.1029/2021GL093940
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Variations in mineralogy of dust in an ice core obtained from northwestern Greenland over the past 100 years (2021)
  • Author(s): Nagatsuka Naoko、Goto-Azuma Kumiko、Tsushima Akane、Fujita Koji、Matoba Sumito、Onuma Yukihiko、Dallmayr Remi、Kadota Moe、Hirabayashi Motohiro、Ogata Jun、Ogawa-Tsukagawa Yoshimi、Kitamura Kyotaro、Minowa Masahiro、Komuro Yuki、Motoyama Hideaki、Aoki Teruo
  • Journal Title: Climate of the Past Volume: 17 Pages: 1341～1362
  • DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-1341-2021
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Physically Based Summer Temperature Reconstruction From Melt Layers in Ice Cores (2021)
  • Author(s): Fujita Koji、Matoba Sumito、Iizuka Yoshinori、Takeuchi Nozomu、Tsushima Akane、Kurosaki Yutaka、Aoki Teruo
  • Journal Title: Earth and Space Science Volume: 8 Pages: e2020EA001590
  • DOI: 10.1029/2020EA001590
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Ice Core Drilling and the Related Observations at SE-Dome site, southeastern Greenland Ice Sheet (2021)
  • Author(s): IIZUKA Yoshinori、MATOBA Sumito、MINOWA Masahiro、YAMASAKI Tetsuhide、KAWAKAMI Kaoru、KAKUGO Ayako、MIYAHARA Morihiro、HASHIMOTO Akihiro、NIWANO Masashi、TANIKAWA Tomonori、FUJITA Koji、AOKI Teruo
  • Journal Title: Bulletin of Glaciological Research Volume: 39 Pages: 1～12
  • DOI: 10.5331/bgr.21R01
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] 光学リモートセンシングによる雪氷プロダクトの地上検証観測 (2021)
  • Author(s): 谷川 朋範、青木 輝夫、堀 雅裕、八久保 晶弘、庭野 匡思、杉浦 幸之助、的場 澄人、島田 利元
  • Journal Title: 日本リモートセンシング学会誌 Volume: 41 Pages: 582～594
  • DOI: 10.11440/rssj.41.582
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Presentation] Rainfall on the Greenland ice sheet: Present-day states estimated from a high-resolution non-hydrostatic polar regional climate model (2022)
  • Author(s): Niwano, M.
  • Organizer: IASC NAG online meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Algorithm improvement of SGLI snow products and their validations (2022)
  • Author(s): Aoki, T., R. Shimada, M. Niwano, T. Tanikawa, M. Hori, S. Matoba, H. Ishimoto, A. Hachikubo, K. Sugiura, K. Stamnes, W. Li, N. Chen, J. C. Gallet and A. Kokhanovsky
  • Organizer: Joint PI Meeting of JAXA Earth Observation Missions FY2021
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 気象研究所地球システムモデルを用いた北極気候研究（放射強制力、20世紀前半の北極温暖化、COVID-19による気候影響評価） (2021)
  • Author(s): 大島長
  • Organizer: ArCS II 第2回全体会合
• [Presentation] アイスコア観測と全球モデル計算との比較 (2021)
  • Author(s): 大島長
  • Organizer: グリーンランド南東ドームアイスコアに関する研究集会
• [Presentation] Global and Arctic effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic gases and aerosols in MRI-ESM2.0 (2021)
  • Author(s): Oshima, N., Yukimoto, S., Deushi, M., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Tanaka, T. Y., and Yoshida, K
  • Organizer: Tri-MIPathlon-3
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Challenges to model complex snow-atmosphere interaction processes in the Greenland ice sheet (2021)
  • Author(s): Niwano, M.
  • Organizer: IMAU (Utrecht University) online seminar
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Effects of snow and ice physical/chemical properties on the changing cryosphere (2021)
  • Author(s): Aoki, T.
  • Organizer: Finland-Japan online joint seminar on Arctic Science
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Possible albedo reduction of snow surface due to black carbon over the past 350 years on the Greenland Ice Sheet estimated from the SIGMA-D ice core (2021)
  • Author(s): Aoki, T., K. Goto-Azuma, S. Matoba, R. Shimada, Y. Kondo, N. Moteki, M. Koike, K. Fujita, H. Motoyama, and M. Hori
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2021年度連合大会
• [Presentation] 戦略目標①先進的な観測システムを活用した北極環境変化の実態 (2021)
  • Author(s): 青木輝夫
  • Organizer: ArCS II第2回全体会合
• [Presentation] Cryosphere team report on GCOM-C activities (2021)
  • Author(s): Aoki, T., M. Hori, R. Shimada, M. Niwano, T. Tanikawa, S. Matoba, K. Stamnes, W. Li, N. Chen, A. Kokhanovsky, A. Hachikubo, and K. Sugiura
  • Organizer: GCOM-C Mini Workshop FY2021
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 拡張された波長領域0.2-4.0 μmにおける積雪の放射特性 (2021)
  • Author(s): 青木輝夫，内山明博
  • Organizer: 雪氷研究大会（2021・千葉-オンライン）, 日本雪氷学会/日本雪工学会
• [Presentation] Is surface darkening occurring over the Greenland Ice Sheet? (2021)
  • Author(s): Aoki, T., R. Shimada, M. Hori, T. Tanikawa and M. Niwano
  • Organizer: The 12th Symposium on Polar Science
  • Int'l Joint Research