Minamata Disease Methyl Mercurry Exposure Risk Study

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K01438
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 06010:Politics-related
• Research Institution: Kumamoto University
• Principal Investigator: Ueno Shinya 熊本大学, 熊本創生推進機構, 特定事業教員 (70333523)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 水俣病 / メチル水銀曝露 / 曝露リスク / 魚介類 / シミュレーション / HACCP

Outline of Final Research Achievements

There is an exposure risk discourse that methylmercury exposure, which caused Minamata disease, extended from the coast of the Yatsushiro Sea to inland areas. In order to scientifically verify this, we conducted a social survey, a search for data, and interviews to find out where the contaminated fish were caught, where they were transported to, how they were distributed, and how much people consumed them at that time. Based on the findings, an exposure simulation model was created, and exposure risks were assessed by HACCP for each region. In addition, after two political solutions, the process by which the movement for relief was propagated to areas that had not been affected before was examined using a system dynamics analysis to elucidate the "ill structured problem" that drives the problem as a system that does not end the problem.

Free Research Field

政治学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

従来の水俣病研究は医学的な議論が中心であったが、本研究では工場排水から魚の曝露、捕獲、流通、魚の摂食という一連の因果関係を網羅した知見を、調査やデータ分析から導き出し、それによって八代海沿岸及び内陸部の地域毎のメチル水銀曝露リスクについて、HACCP方式で評価した。これによりリスクにかかる変数と値が明示され、争点でなにが異なっているのかが明確になり、その適否について科学的な検証が可能となった。またこの公害問題が、なぜ公共政策が長年取り組みながら、終わることができないのかについて、公共政策学的なモデルで説明をした。これにより行政の政策形成や訴訟におけるリスク評価に寄与できる知見が得られた。