2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT AND COUNTERMEASURE METHOD FOR TSUNAMI AND STORM SURGE USING SURVIVAL PROBABILITY
| Project/Area Number |
18K04652
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
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| Research Institution | Ibaraki University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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| Keywords | 生存確率 / リスクマップ / ハザードマップ / 津波 / 高潮 / 統合リスク / リスク低減 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study proposes an evaluation method including the countermeasures to secure an acceptable survival probability against natural disasters those were tsunami and storm surge along coastal zones. This study showed that the integrated mortality risk can be calculated for multiple water disasters of a wide range by using the method proposed in this study, and the effectiveness of risk integration can be also expressed. In addition, we confirmed that it is possible to set an acceptable risk as a reduction target for integrated risk and to consider appropriate disaster reduction countermeasures according to the reduction target.
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| Free Research Field |
Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
平成23年(2011年）東北地方太平洋沖地震津波による原子力発電所事故を受け，科学にはあらゆるリスクの想定と対処が求められた．2020年から世界を襲った疫病であるCovid-19においては、社会にリスクがないゼロリスクと通常の社会活動との両立は困難であるとの認識が世の中に広まった．
これらに対して沿岸域の巨大災害である津波と高潮を統合したリスクの提示、評価方法および社会が許容できるレベルまでリスクを低下させる施策に対する評価までを行える手法を本研究で構築した点が学術的に新しく、また社会からの科学への要請に応えた点でもある．
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