Development of soccer shooting ability evaluation index using big data

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K10811
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 59020:Sports sciences-related
• Research Institution: University of Tsukuba
• Principal Investigator: Nakayama Masao 筑波大学, 体育系, 教授 (70217941)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 平嶋 裕輔 筑波大学, 体育系, 特任助教 (60825074)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: サッカー / シュート能力 / ロジスティック回帰分析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We developed a regression equation to predict the probability of shot failure by extracting five factors that affect the success or failure of a shot in a World Cup soccer match: 1. presence or absence of a defender in the shooting path, 2. set play or open play, 3. presence or absence of defenders in close proximity, 4. number of opponents in front, and 5. distance to goal from the place where the shooter received the ball. The regression equation predicting the probability of shot failure was constructed by extracting these five factors.
In addition, seven factors affecting shooting in the J-League in Japan and the European Champions League, the world's top league, were extracted: (1) shooting distance, (2) shooting angle, (3) penalty kick or not, (4) shooting speed, (5) curved shot or not, (6) moving shot or not, and (7) presence or absence of post-shooting change. (7) Whether or not there is a change after the shot.

Free Research Field

コーチング学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

サッカー選手のシュート能力を客観的に評価するために必要となる要因を明らかにし、それぞれのシュートが成功（得点）する確率を算出するための式を構築した。このことにより、シュート能力は得点の数だけでなく、シュートの難易度を考慮して評価することの必要性について明らかにすることができた。