Predicting the potential natural vegetation distributions for climate change impact assessment in Japan

2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K11728
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 64040:Social-ecological systems-related
• Research Institution: Kochi University
• Principal Investigator: HIGA Motoki 高知大学, 教育研究部自然科学系理工学部門, 講師 (60709385)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
• Keywords: 森林植生帯の広域分布 / 暖温帯針葉樹林 / 種分布予測モデル / 夏期降水量 / 多項ロジットモデル / 中間温帯林 / モミ・ツガ林 / 植生図

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Potential natural vegetation models were developed for assessing climatic conditions of intermediate-temperate forests and warm-temperate conifer forests, as well as climate change impact assessments. PNV models revealed that the warm-temperate conifer forests dominated by Abies firma and Tsuga sieboldii were potentially occurred in the temperate regions with humid climate. This forest is a zonal vegetation formation along the summer precipitation gradient. This study revealed that the potential northern range limits of common evergreen broadleaf trees were wider than their actual range limits; however, it failed to explain entire distributions of the intermediate-temperate forests. Climate change induced reduction of current distribution areas of natural forests in Japan were estimated to occur. Reduction rates was higher for the cool- and warm-temperate conifer forests in addition to subalpine conifer and broadleaf forests.

Free Research Field

植物生態学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究で構築した高精度の森林植生帯分布予測モデルにより，モミ・ツガ林と中間温帯林の気候的位置づけを明らかにすることができた。この成果は，これまで広く受け入れられてきた仮説を更新するものであり，日本の植生構造の解明に大きく寄与する。また，急速な地球温暖化が生態系と生物多様性，特に生態系の基盤である森林植生の分布に及ぼす影響の解明は世界的な主要課題であるが，本研究により，温暖化が森林植生分布へ及ぼす影響と脆弱性を明らかにすることができた。この成果は，植生学や植物生態学の発展にとどまらず，生物多様性や地域資源への温暖化影響評価にも寄与すると考えられる。