Evaluation of forecasts by international organizations and their impacts on private forecasts

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K12775
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
• Research Institution: Meiji University (2021); Tohoku University (2019-2020); Tokyo University of Science (2018)
• Principal Investigator: Tsuchiya Yoichi 明治大学, 商学部, 専任准教授 (70711620)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 経済予測 / アンカリング効果 / 国際機関予測 / 期待形成 / 情報硬直性 / 区間予測

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of this study was to evaluate economic forecasts published by international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The accuracy of the forecasts and the direction and degree of bias varied among those organizations. However, there were not many instances of pronounced bias, indicating good performance of their forecasts in the medium-term perspective. International institutions generally fulfill an anchor function in the formation of private economic agents' expectations and contribute to stabilizing expectations. These results suggest that private economic agents can form more accurate expectations by taking into account the biases contained in the forecasts of international institutions.

Free Research Field

経済予測

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

学術的意義は、これまで見過ごされてきた主要な国際機関の経済見通しを検証し、その正確性、バイアス、アンカー機能を明らかにした点である。社会的意義として、（1）唯一信頼できる機関は存在しないものの、（2）国際機関予測はアンカー機能を果たしており、（3）民間経済主体はそれらの予測に含まれるバイアスを考慮することでより正確な期待形成が可能であることが分かったこと、が挙げられる。