Exploring the mechanism of the effects of labor market and school education policies in the application of mediation analysis

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K12794
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07050:Public economics and labor economics-related
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo (2022-2023); Hitotsubashi University (2019-2021); Osaka University (2018)
• Principal Investigator: Kikuchi Nobuyoshi 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 特任研究員 (40775847)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 媒介分析 / 間接効果 / 保育政策 / 学童保育 / 子供の健康 / 雇用成長率 / 政策評価 / 因果推論

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study uses a mediation analysis method to analyze causal effects and their mechanisms. We have two main findings. First, we find that the use of formal childcare increases the probability of mothers' full-time employment when the children enter primary school and later. Most of this effect is due to the indirect effect of the use of after-school childcare in grade 1. Second, improvements in local economic conditions during pregnancy increase the probability of preterm birth and low birth weight and decrease the probability of mothers' full-time employment when the children are toddlers.

Free Research Field

労働経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

女性活躍推進と少子化対策の両立において、母親の就業を促進する政策や経済状況の因果効果を精確に推定するだけでなく、その効果を継続させるための施策を考える必要がある。本研究は、媒介分析によって間接効果を推定し、政策の相乗・相殺効果を生む中間変数を通した中長期的な因果効果の経路を明らかにした。これにより、効果的かつ継続的に効果がある政策の条件や媒介要因は何かを分析できる可能性を示唆した。