2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Development of indicators to ensure mortality predictions for frail elderly-Using data observed in daily life
| Project/Area Number |
18K17623
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 58080:Gerontological nursing and community health nursing-related
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| Research Institution | Tokyo Ariake University of Medical and Health Sciences |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Keywords | BMI / 食事摂取量 / エンドオブライフ・ケア / 非がん / 予後予測 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Survival prediction is considered difficult in elderly individuals with frailty or dementia that leads to death. The aim of this study was to verify temporal changes in body mass index(BMI), energy intake, and fluid intake measured continuously in frail elderly people as prognostic factors for death. We assessed 106-218 frail elderly individuals who received care at an elderly care facility and died at the facility. Elderly people presented a tendency toward decreasing BMI starting 60 months prior to death even if energy intake remained constant. In the 1 year before death, energy intake rapidly decreased, and fluid intake decreased suddenly immediately prior to death. Therefore, these parameters can be used as prognostic factors for death in frail elderly people.
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| Free Research Field |
エンドオブライフ・ケア
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
緩徐に機能が低下し衰弱や認知症により死に至る高齢者について，死の時期を予測できるエビデンスがない。そうした高齢者について死の5年前から低下するBMI(Body Mass Index)や1年前から急激に低下する食事摂取量(kcal)，水分摂取量(ml)のデータを縦断的に収集し分析した結果，これらのパラメータにおける特徴的な変化は余命予測に有効であることが本研究で明らかにされた。これらの科学的なエビデンスをもとに，緩徐に機能が低下する高齢者に対しても，終末期を意識したケアに転換することが可能となることが示唆された。
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