2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Prediction of and evacuation from flood disaster in snowmelt season based on Soil Water Index and decision tree model -A case study of Tomsk city, Russia-
| Project/Area Number |
18KK0028
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| Research Category |
Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research (B))
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Medium-sized Section 4:Geography, cultural anthropology, folklore, and related fields
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| Research Institution | Tokyo Metropolitan University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
中山 大地 東京都立大学, 都市環境科学研究科, 助教 (90336511)
根元 裕樹 東京都立大学, 学術情報基盤センター, 准教授 (90805574)
齋藤 仁 名古屋大学, 環境学研究科, 准教授 (00709628)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-10-09 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | 土壌雨量指数 / 決定木 / 融雪災害 / トムスク市 / 避難行動 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
(1) By incorporating snowfall-accumulation-snowmelt processes into Soil Water Index, we succeeded to reproduce the occurrence of snowmelt disasters at Tomsk City, Russia.
(2) We investigated the extreme atmospheric phenomena around Southern Siberia (including Tomsk City). In the Southern Siberia, temperature rise in March is outstanding, and the year-to-year variability of precipitation in spring is large. Therefore it is apt to occur snowmelt-related disasters in spring in future.
(3) Using GIS and multi-agent simulation, we investigated evacuation behavior at Tomsk City. By the flood, the city is divided into northern and southern parts which affects the evacuation behavior of the people. When people go to shelters from main streets via small alleys, traffic jams occur at intersections which requires more time for the evacuation.
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| Free Research Field |
自然地理学，水文気象学，地理情報科学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
土壌雨量指数は，日本国内の土砂災害発生を予測するために開発されたものであり，外国における適用事例はそれほど多いわけではなかった．しかも，降雪－積雪－融雪過程を取り入れて，融雪災害の発生時期を特定する研究は皆無であり，日本国内だけでなく外国でも適用できる（汎用性がある）ことを実証的に示すことができた．
また，シベリア南部における気象要素の長期変動を調べたり，トムスク市で極端現象が発生した2012年の事例解析を行なうことによって，将来の融雪災害発生危険性について指摘することがてきた．
さらに，融雪災害発生時の避難行動シミュレーションを行なうことによって，災害発生時に気を付けるべきことを指摘できた．
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