Global projection of consumption-based PM2.5 heath impacts for planetary health

2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18KK0322
• Research Category: Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research (A))
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Design and evaluation of sustainable and environmental conscious system
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• Principal Investigator: Nansai Keisuke 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 資源循環・廃棄物研究センター, 室長 (80391134)
• Project Period (FY): 2018 – 2020
• Keywords: 消費基準勘定 / グローバルサプライチェーン / 早期死亡者 / 大気汚染

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We estimated the direct and indirect PM2.5 primary and secondary precursor emissions induced by the global supply chains of the 19 G20 Presidency countries and calculated the atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations brought out from those emissions. We calculated the number of premature deaths due to exposure to PM2.5 concentrations in 199 countries worldwide, and determined the PM2.5 premature death footprint of each G20 country. In addition, the footprint caused by their lifetime consumption up to life expectancy by considering future demographic changes by sex and age group in 2050 and 2100 in the world. An increase in the number of high-risk populations due to ageing and population growth in Africa were found to be the main drivers of changes in the lifetime consumption footprint.

Free Research Field

環境システム学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

各国首脳が出席するハイレベル政策会合であるG20議長国について，グローバルサプライチェーンを通じて生じるPM2.5由来の早期死亡者の定量情報と2050年と2100年の将来人口動態変化が早期死亡者数の変化と密接であることを示した。これは，PM2.5による人健康影響に対して，G20として協働対策や国際貿易の制度設計を促進することを支援するとともに，改善実施の遅延は早期死亡者の現状維持でなく，大きく増加することを警告する。