Prediction and integrated assessment of health risks due to heat-induced disorders and infectious diseases under climate change

2021 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19H01144
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: 福士 謙介 東京大学, 未来ビジョン研究センター, 教授 (30282114)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 渡部 徹 山形大学, 農学部, 教授 (10302192) ; 渡辺 幸三 愛媛大学, 沿岸環境科学研究センター, 教授 (80634435) ; 浦 剣 東京大学, 未来ビジョン研究センター, 助教 (40622072)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 健康リスク / 気候変動 / 暑熱障害 / 感染症 / 東南アジア

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

【研究項目２ 暑熱に関連する健康リスクの予測モデル】インドネシアで従前実施してきた暑熱脆弱性指標による都市ならびに非都市部における評価を継続して行った。暑熱環境の緩和の方策のひとつとしての都市緑地（Urban Green）の分布を都市計画の中に取り入れた場合の評価、都市緑地を計画的に配置するためのアルゴリズムの研究、さらに、その緑地を持続可能に運営するための方策を検討した。また、屋外労働者の暑熱環境による負荷を測定する研究をベトナム・ハノイ市で実施しているが、屋外労働者（建設業）はベトナムでは比較的高収入であることから、栄養状態が良く、健康を害するまでの暑熱の影響はあまり受けていないことが判った。

【研究項目３ 水系感染症に関する健康リスクの予測モデル】ベトナムのフエ市の周辺では、雨季において都市下水に由来する糞便汚染指標細菌が下流に拡散することを示すデータを得た。そこでの水利用によって汚染された水に触れることだけでなく、汚染された水を使って生産された農作物を介した感染症のリスクが懸念された。同地域でのインタビュー調査では、都市廃棄物の処理場周辺で不衛生な水に接触する機会が多く、実際に下痢症や皮膚病のリスクが高いことも明らかとなった。

【研究項目４ 蚊媒介感染症に関する健康リスクの予測モデル】インドネシアの西ジャワ州バンドンの16地区でコホート研究を実施した。各地区で気象観測器と改良型ライトモスキートトラップを設置し、２分ごとの気象データとネッタイシマカ成虫（オス、メスごと）の月ごと生息数データを取得した。一般化線形モデルを用いて，デング熱患者数に対する気象変数とメス成虫個体数の影響を分析した結果、ネッタイシマカ成虫が1匹増えるとデング熱感染リスクが1.8%増加し、最高気温が1度上昇するとリスクが17%減少することが示された。

Research Progress Status

令和3年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

令和3年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] フエ大学/ハノイ土木大学(ベトナム)
  • Country Name: VIET NAM
  • Counterpart Institution: フエ大学/ハノイ土木大学
• [Int'l Joint Research] カンボジア工科大学(カンボジア)
  • Country Name: CAMBODIA
  • Counterpart Institution: カンボジア工科大学
• [Int'l Joint Research] デ・ラサール大学(フィリピン)
  • Country Name: PHILIPPINES
  • Counterpart Institution: デ・ラサール大学
• [Int'l Joint Research] ウダヤナ大学/パジャジャラン大学(インドネシア)
  • Country Name: INDONESIA
  • Counterpart Institution: ウダヤナ大学/パジャジャラン大学
• [Journal Article] Detection and phylogeny of Wolbachia in field-collected Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti from Manila City, Philippines (2022)
  • Author(s): Regilme, M. A. F., T. Inukai and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: European Journal of Molecular & Clinical Medicine Volume: accepted Pages: accepted
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Temporal Correlation between Urban Microclimate, Vector Mosquito Abundance, and Dengue Cases (2022)
  • Author(s): Faridah, L, N. Fauziah, D. Agustian, I. G. N. M. Jaya, R. E. Putra, S. Ekawardhani, N. Hidayath, I. D. Djati, T. M. Carvajal, R. Agoes and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Journal of Medical Entomology Volume: in press Pages: tjac005
  • DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjac005
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Impact of population growth and land use and land cover (LULC) changes on water quality in tourism-dependent economies using a geographically weighted regression approach (2021)
  • Author(s): Andi Besse Rimba, Geetha Mohan, Saroj Kumar Chapagain, Andi Arumansawang, Carolyn Payus, Kensuke Fukushi, Takahiro Osawa, Ram Avtar
  • Journal Title: Environmental Science and Pollution Research Volume: 28 Pages: 25920-25938
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-12285-8
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Accelerating Urban Heating under Land Cover and Climate Change Scenarios in Indonesia-Application of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (2021)
  • Author(s): Martiwi Diah Setiawati, Marcin Pawel Jarzebski, Martin Gomez-Garcia, Kensuke Fukushi
  • Journal Title: Frontiers in Built Environment Volume: 7 Pages: 65
  • DOI: 10.3389/fbuil.2021.622382
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Heat Vulnerability Index Development and Application in Medan City, Indonesia (2021)
  • Author(s): Setiawati Martiwi Diah、Jarzebski Marcin Pawel、Fukushi Kensuke
  • Journal Title: Integrated Research on Disaster Risks Volume: n.a. Pages: 87～110
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-55563-4_6
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Quality of life and factors affecting it: A study among people living near a solid waste management facility (2021)
  • Author(s): Long Thanh Phan, Gia Thanh Nguyen,Quynh Anh Dac Nguyen, Hieu Song Nguyen, Tin Trung Nguyen, Toru Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Frontiers in Public Health Volume: 9 Pages: 720006
  • DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.720006
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Tracking fecal bacterial dispersion from municipal wastewater to peri-urban farms during monsoon rains in Hue city, Vietnam (2021)
  • Author(s): Windra Prayoga, Masateru Nishiyama, Susan Praise, Dung Viet Pham, Hieu Van Duong, Lieu Khac Pham, Loc Thanh Thi Dang, Toru Watanabe
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Volume: 18 Pages: 9580
  • DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18189580
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Comparative population genetic structure of two ixodid tick species (Acari:Ixodidae) (Ixodes ovatus and Haemaphysalis flava) in Niigata Prefecture, Japan (2021)
  • Author(s): Regilme, M. A. F., M. Sato, T. Tamura, R. Arai, M. O. Sato, S. Ikeda, M. Doi, K. Tanaka, M. Gamboa, M. T. Monaghan, and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Infection, Genetics and Evolution Volume: 94 Pages: 104999
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2021.104999
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Dengue Disease Dynamics are Modulated by the Combined Influence of Precipitation and Landscapes: A Machine Learning-based Approach (2021)
  • Author(s): Francisco, M. E., T. M. Carvajal, M. Ryo, K. Nukazawa, D. M. Amalin, and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Science of the Total Environment Volume: 792 (20) Pages: 148406
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148406
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Carotenoid Coloration and Coloration-Linked Gene Expression in Red Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) Tissues (2021)
  • Author(s): Cruz, K. G. J., E. P. Landingin, M. B. Gajeton, S. I. D. Fernando, and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: BMC Veterinary Research Volume: 17 Pages: 314
  • DOI: 10.1186/s12917-021-03006-5
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Next Generation of AMR Network (2021)
  • Author(s): Payumo, J. G., E. Alocilja, C. Boodoo, K. Luchini-Colbry, P. Ruegg, E. Mclamore, D. V. Gamboa, R. K. Briceno, A. Castaneda-Sabogal, K. Watanabe, M. J. Gordoncillo, D. Amalin, L. Fernando, and N. Bhusal
  • Journal Title: Encyclopedia Volume: 1 (3) Pages: 871-892
  • DOI: 10.3390/encyclopedia1030067
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Intracellular Interactions between Arboviruses and Wolbachia in Aedes aegypti (2021)
  • Author(s): Reyes, J. I. L., Y. Suzuki, T. M. Carvajal, M. N. M. Munoz, and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology Volume: 11 Pages: 690087
  • DOI: 10.3389/fcimb.2021.690087
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Acute Oral Toxicity Assessment of Ethanolic Extracts of Antidesma bunius (L.) Spreng Fruits in Mice in vivo (2021)
  • Author(s): Mu?oz, M. N. M., U. A. Tejada, J. I. L. Reyes, and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Toxicology Reports Volume: 8 Pages: 1289-1299
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.toxrep.2021.06.010
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Demographic and Spatial Pattern Analysis of Hospitalized Dengue Patients in Bandung City in the Year 2014-2016 (2021)
  • Author(s): Faridah, L., I. G. N. Mindra, R. E. Putra, N. Fauziah, D. Agustian, Y. A. Natalia, and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Tropical Medicine and Health Volume: 49 Pages: 44
  • DOI: 10.1186/s41182-021-00329-9
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Biofilm Inhibition in Candida albicans by Biologically-synthesized Gold Nanoparticles (2021)
  • Author(s): Cruz, K. G. J., E. D. Alfonso, S. I. D. Fernando, and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Frontiers in Microbiology Volume: 12 Pages: 665113
  • DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2021.665113
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Ticks Prevalence in Niigata Prefecture, Japan (2016 ? 2018), the Species Shifting from the 1950s (2021)
  • Author(s): Sato, M., S. Ikeda, R. Arai, M. Kato, J. Aoki, A. Nishida, K. Watanabe, C. Hirokawa, K. Watanabe, M. A. F. Regilme, M. Sato, M. O. Sato, T. Tamura
  • Journal Title: Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases Volume: 12 (3) Pages: 101683
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ttbdis.2021.101683
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Presentation] Water, economy and employment: importance of water resources and environment (cases in Asia) (2022)
  • Author(s): Kensuke Fukushi
  • Organizer: Are Water Deficits and Extreme Events Increasing Migration and Displacement, 9th World Water Forum
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] カンボジア王国トンレサップ湖における大腸菌濃度と水系感染症リスクの時空間分布 (2022)
  • Author(s): 米田一路，西山正晃，渡部徹
  • Organizer: 令和３年度土木学会東北支部技術研究発表会
• [Presentation] Eco-epidemiology of Dengue Mosquitoes in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines (2022)
  • Author(s): Kozo Watanabe
  • Organizer: Trinity University of Asia's Research Congress (TRIICON)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Spatio-temporal and Numerical Data Resolution Affect the Performance of Machine Learning in Dengue Forecast. A Case Study in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines. (2022)
  • Author(s): Francisco ME, Carvajal TM, Watanabe K
  • Organizer: International Seminar on Conducting Scientific Research ? Ecological Approaches to Mosquito-borne Disease Control JSPS Core-to-Core Program B. Asia ? Africa Science Platforms
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Building Resilience in Societies After COVID-19 (2021)
  • Author(s): Kensuke Fukushi
  • Organizer: WIDER Annual Conference 2021
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Risk assessment of diarrheal diseases under the climate and socio-economic changes for floating villagers in Tonle Sap Lake using two-dimensional advection-diffusion model (2021)
  • Author(s): Ichiro Yoneda, Masateru Nishiyama, Toru Watanabe
  • Organizer: 6th International Symposium on Conservation and Management of Tropical Lakes
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] SDGsのもとで途上国の水と衛生問題を考える (2021)
  • Author(s): 渡部徹
  • Organizer: 第33回環境工学連合講演会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Viral DNA forms of cell fusing agent virus (CFAV) are produced in Aedes aegypti mosquito cell lines (2021)
  • Author(s): Mohammad Mosleh Uddin, Yasutsugu Sujuki, Kozo Watanabe
  • Organizer: The 44th Annual Meeting of the Molecular Biology Society of Japan
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Post-COVID-19 water management in urban areas in the Anthropocene (2021)
  • Author(s): Kensuke Fukushi
  • Organizer: Thematic Webinar (TW.12 Climate Change, Water Quality and Health), Singapore International Water Week 2021
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Sustainable water management system for the resilience of the society (2021)
  • Author(s): Kensuke Fukushi
  • Organizer: Building Resilience in Water Management with Multi-stakeholder Engagement, World Water Week 2021
  • Int'l Joint Research