2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Development of a Long-Term Care Prediction Tool Considering the Interactions of the Five Major Causal Diseases: A 17-Year Follow-Up of a Population-based Cohort

Research Project

PDF

Project/Area Number	19H03895
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
Allocation Type	Single-year Grants
Section	一般
Review Section	Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
Research Institution	The University of Tokyo
Principal Investigator	Yoshimura Noriko 東京大学, 医学部附属病院, 特任教授 (60240355)
Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha)	村木重之東京大学, 医学部附属病院, 届出研究員 (40401070) 岡敬之東京大学, 医学部附属病院, 特任准教授 (60401064) 飯高世子東京大学, 医学部附属病院, 特任助教 (80800680)
Project Period (FY)	2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Keywords	介護予防 / コホート研究 / 軽度記憶障害 / メタボリック症候群 / 骨粗鬆症 / サルコペニア / フレイル / 変形性関節症
Outline of Final Research Achievements	In the population-based cohort study entitled ROAD, which we established and have been following for 17 years, we examined preconditions of the five major diseases leading to long-term care needs: mild cognitive impairment (MCI), components of metabolic syndrome, osteoporosis, frailty, sarcopenia, and osteoarthritis (OA). We found that from their 60s to 80s, individuals tend to accumulate obesity, hypertension, underweight, impaired glucose tolerance, OA, dyslipidemia, osteoporosis, frailty, sarcopenia, and MCI in this order. We followed the participants for six years and analyzed their association with the incidence of long-term care needs and mortality. Osteoarthritis of the knee and MCI were identified as factors influencing the need for long-term care, while underweight and MCI were identified as factors influencing mortality. Considering these findings, we developed a beta version of a simple tool for assessing the risk of long-term care needs.
Free Research Field	疫学、予防医学
Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements	要介護の原因五大疾患のすべてを網羅して長期の追跡を行い、それらの相互連関と要介護への影響を解明した研究は世界的にもみられない。本研究では地域住民コホートROADの17年にわたる追跡調査結果から、五大疾患の前段階状態がそれぞれみとめられる平均年齢を解明した。それととも五大疾患前段階状態と要介護、死亡との関連を解析し、要介護発生と膝OA、MCI、死亡とやせ、MCIが有意に関連していることを示した。これによりどの年齢区分からどの疾患をターゲットとして予防活動を行えば介護予防につながるのかが解明され、高齢者のQOLの維持増進に貢献できる。ベータ版ではあるがリスク評価ツールについても使用の目処がついた。