2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Risk assessment of river ecosystems due to climate change: Integrating statistical models and mesocosm experiments
| Project/Area Number |
19H04314
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 64040:Social-ecological systems-related
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
石山 信雄 地方独立行政法人北海道立総合研究機構, 森林研究本部 林業試験場, 主査 (50780821)
末吉 正尚 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 生物多様性領域, 研究員 (70792927)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | 気候変動 / 河川生態系 / 水温予測 / 種間関係 / メソコスム実験 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The aim of the project was to gain a better understanding of the risk from climate change to Japanese rivers and their biodiversity by combining field monitoring, statistical models and experiments. Using hundreds of monitoring sites across several catchments, we demonstrated the importance of catchment- and reach-scale variables in regulating stream water temperatures. In particular, volcanic geology, as a surrogate for cold groundwater inputs, was associated with stable cool habitats that sustained distinctive stream communities. Our analysis of future climate scenarios showed that these volcanic streams will retain suitable thermal conditions over the century acting as climate refugia. Availability of such refugia will be increasingly important as our experiments demonstrated that increasing warming trends and more frequent and severe heat waves, mimicking future projected regional conditions, will lead to a reduction of cold-adapted species and disrupted aquatic food webs.
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| Free Research Field |
生態学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
補完的な手法（フィールドモニタリング、モデル、実験）を組み合わせることにより、我々のプロジェクトは、将来の気候変動が日本の河川とその生物相に与えうる影響の大きさとタイプ、およびさまざまな環境・景観変数が河川内の温度環境にどのような影響を与えうるかについて、新規かつ頑健な知見を提供する。特に、地質の重要性を浮き彫りにし、将来的な気候変動において、火山性湧水を水源とする河川が安定した冷水環境を提供するレフュージアとして機能する可能性を示している。これらの結果を総合すると、本研究は、地質に基づく気候変動レフュージアを河川管理や保全計画に組み込むのに役立つ、斬新で重要な情報を提供する。
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